{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c3365b2a-0f14-47d5-aeaa-0e36aab553e9",
    "symbol": "BG",
    "name": "Bunge Global SA",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 51.791,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -59.679,
    "architecture_energy": 31.907,
    "architecture_maturity": 16.965,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.517,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.1,
        "rotation_up": 22.32,
        "upward_expansion": 10.31,
        "deceleration": 51.72,
        "rotation_down": 46.85,
        "downward_expansion": 69.98
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        112.268667,
        113.183273,
        116.709091,
        118.102703
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 108.38,
    "trend_reference": 118.49109,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.085332,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 93.704563,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156614,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.36692,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.053576,
    "excess_performance": -0.179201,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085332,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067286,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.156614,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.199425,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083669,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.242949,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053576,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.996417,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8445209,
      "relative_activity": 1.079302,
      "balance": 0.996417,
      "dry_up": 0.896894,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.084399,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.369896,
      "from_high_reference": -0.196382,
      "from_low_reference": 0.453354
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 118.49109,
      "fair_value_reference": 93.704563,
      "structural_low": 102.812,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.000972,
        "positive_rate": 0.466667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.466667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014921,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.129521,
        "worst_return": -0.166044,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.054267,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056755,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.276785,
        "worst_return": -0.036663,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.204843,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023968,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.389771,
        "worst_return": 0.010155,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.056336,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.193633,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.591585,
        "worst_return": 0.028644,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.051062,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010768,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01083,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.181806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064445,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045997,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.180777,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110563,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
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        "return": 0.178638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
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        "return": 0.103219,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-07-03",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.063069,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020239,
        "active": true
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    ],
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 8455632.4,
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        "fair_value": 92.057827,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 92.566131,
        "relative_strength": 15.875654,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 113.237823,
        "fair_value": 92.814507,
        "relative_strength": 15.307433,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 1.014795,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 93.137406,
        "relative_strength": 1.299148,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 11.741914,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 7357715,
        "typical_volume": 8335276.45,
        "trend": 114.857802,
        "fair_value": 93.226223,
        "relative_strength": -4.747975,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.387031,
        "energy": 43.48976,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 114.32,
        "volume": 7653076,
        "typical_volume": 8482482.45,
        "trend": 115.609719,
        "fair_value": 93.373182,
        "relative_strength": 0.514751,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.849021,
        "energy": 41.289819,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 119.15,
        "volume": 4817570,
        "typical_volume": 8322480.05,
        "trend": 116.567772,
        "fair_value": 93.520714,
        "relative_strength": 5.814644,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -26.197974,
        "energy": 41.513338,
        "activity_lines": [
          113.738,
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          119.15331
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 121.53,
        "volume": 4762787,
        "typical_volume": 8161706.25,
        "trend": 117.683901,
        "fair_value": 93.662812,
        "relative_strength": 7.945621,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -13.508541,
        "energy": 12.913,
        "activity_lines": [
          116.711333,
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          119.194623,
          119.473454
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 106.23,
        "volume": 10046128,
        "typical_volume": 7998382.05,
        "trend": 118.172741,
        "fair_value": 93.669508,
        "relative_strength": -6.888665,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.206306,
        "energy": 21.022004,
        "activity_lines": [
          113.988,
          114.709455,
          117.807189,
          118.734493
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.38,
        "volume": 8445209,
        "typical_volume": 7824696.4,
        "trend": 118.49109,
        "fair_value": 93.704563,
        "relative_strength": -8.36692,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.678768,
        "energy": 31.907441,
        "activity_lines": [
          112.268667,
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          118.102703
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}