{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c340de94-4dad-45a2-a1c5-2b396a323143", "symbol": "STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.332, "architecture_energy": 41.315, "architecture_maturity": 74.495, "architecture_confidence": 94.407, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.13, "rotation_up": 26.03, "upward_expansion": 59.45, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 36.98, "downward_expansion": 23.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 4215.805973, 4331.257916, 4291.566443, 4084.641675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4450.0, "trend_reference": 3807.677957, "distance_from_trend": 0.168691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2647.719596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.680692, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.1726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.291952, "excess_performance": 0.346618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.680692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.301726, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291952, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 315, "relative_activity": 1.522107, "balance": 1.298333, "dry_up": 0.639043, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037259, "annualized_volatility": 0.434842, "from_high_reference": -0.087071, "from_low_reference": 0.862911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3807.677957, "fair_value_reference": 2647.719596, "structural_low": 3047.469971, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026871, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.056916, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.310696, "worst_return": -0.11465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.170756, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.185746, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.553478, "worst_return": -0.10125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.104359, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.119724, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.299255, "worst_return": -0.162701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 23.667499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.957535, "energy": 41.377702, "activity_lines": [ 4332.26482, 4452.352646, 4223.357081, 3989.962632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4107.959961, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 191.7, "trend": 3732.409434, "fair_value": 2616.567447, "relative_strength": 23.199343, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.162931, "energy": 47.683721, "activity_lines": [ 4214.253782, 4391.208824, 4238.394925, 4016.176675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4107.959961, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 191.7, "trend": 3764.343028, "fair_value": 2631.047239, "relative_strength": 21.30417, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.890801, "energy": 50.50926, "activity_lines": [ 4137.427962, 4329.411184, 4250.272965, 4040.405741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4450.0, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 206.95, "trend": 3807.677957, "fair_value": 2647.719596, "relative_strength": 30.1726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.331526, "energy": 41.315483, "activity_lines": [ 4215.805973, 4331.257916, 4291.566443, 4084.641675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }