{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3453927-de31-4ed1-bf54-f54febf95818", "symbol": "BOMILL", "name": "BoMill AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.678, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.9, "architecture_energy": 14.303, "architecture_maturity": 12.335, "architecture_confidence": 65.95, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.58, "rotation_up": 39.61, "upward_expansion": 34.35, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 17.08, "downward_expansion": 40.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.447933, 0.434345, 0.432471, 0.438533 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.449, "trend_reference": 0.454167, "distance_from_trend": -0.011376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.743226, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.395877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.430109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0587, "excess_performance": -0.120195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116808, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.395877, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021871, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072822, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.576831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177037, "relative_activity": 0.640349, "balance": 1.576831, "dry_up": 0.560261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101422, "annualized_volatility": 0.337752, "from_high_reference": -0.457729, "from_low_reference": 0.226776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.454167, "fair_value_reference": 0.743226, "structural_low": 0.366, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.030471, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.060719, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.13079, "worst_return": -0.154321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.129412, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.202692, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.158038, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.17466, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.22295, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06224, "worst_return": -0.257426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.079441, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.227849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.038874, "worst_return": -0.197755, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.315217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.228261, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015351, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.794, "volume": 194915, "typical_volume": 392428.1, "trend": 0.751323, "fair_value": 1.335772, "relative_strength": -0.285137, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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-46.995516, "energy": 25.587084, "activity_lines": [ 0.415067, 0.415564, 0.426538, 0.439774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.465, "volume": 152672, "typical_volume": 328006.4, "trend": 0.464067, "fair_value": 0.74754, "relative_strength": -19.900388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.349832, "energy": 10.701175, "activity_lines": [ 0.433267, 0.423982, 0.429357, 0.439656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.456, "volume": 150637, "typical_volume": 330327.4, "trend": 0.458333, "fair_value": 0.745348, "relative_strength": -21.550741, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.828112, "energy": 13.458273, "activity_lines": [ 0.443333, 0.43, 0.431295, 0.439135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.449, "volume": 177037, "typical_volume": 276469.7, "trend": 0.454167, "fair_value": 0.743226, "relative_strength": -23.430109, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.899882, "energy": 14.303088, "activity_lines": [ 0.447933, 0.434345, 0.432471, 0.438533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }