{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c34553d8-e519-4bc2-a0f9-edea3b805718", "symbol": "300294", "name": "China Resources Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.123, "architecture_energy": 35.551, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.514, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.18, "rotation_up": 26.85, "upward_expansion": 16.84, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 39.3, "downward_expansion": 66.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.317333, 15.260909, 15.843824, 16.810566 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.6, "trend_reference": 18.37118, "distance_from_trend": -0.150844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.781453, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.282995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.317177, "excess_performance": -0.324577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417507, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114228, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.758943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27788819, "relative_activity": 1.14357, "balance": 0.758943, "dry_up": 1.482201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085516, "annualized_volatility": 0.331561, "from_high_reference": -0.436696, "from_low_reference": 0.107955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.37118, "fair_value_reference": 26.781453, "structural_low": 14.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.011887, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.019566, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.195082, "worst_return": -0.131215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.081674, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.053583, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.244951, "worst_return": -0.21662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121319, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055855, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.21654, "worst_return": -0.346606, "sufficient": true }, 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27.00424, "relative_strength": -34.233276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.994224, "energy": 59.792117, "activity_lines": [ 14.887333, 15.230545, 16.085948, 17.212848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.62, "volume": 28616559, "typical_volume": 24137491.75, "trend": 18.60111, "fair_value": 26.890176, "relative_strength": -26.611202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.107123, "energy": 47.824855, "activity_lines": [ 15.153333, 15.247091, 15.95361, 17.004186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.6, "volume": 27788819, "typical_volume": 24300063.2, "trend": 18.37118, "fair_value": 26.781453, "relative_strength": -29.282995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.123427, "energy": 35.550764, "activity_lines": [ 15.317333, 15.260909, 15.843824, 16.810566 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }