{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c346eeb7-b752-46ca-a60a-85900a7ecce5", "symbol": "XCS7", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.976, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.254, "architecture_energy": 20.418, "architecture_maturity": 99.072, "architecture_confidence": 46.669, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.1, "rotation_up": 42.5, "upward_expansion": 23.67, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 16.24, "downward_expansion": 55.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.287733, 9.104745, 9.188743, 9.314407 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.5415, "trend_reference": 9.550098, "distance_from_trend": -0.0009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.248313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.434371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073352, "excess_performance": -0.124587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046259, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.629594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39944, "relative_activity": 0.068879, "balance": 2.629594, "dry_up": 0.893387, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029927, "annualized_volatility": 0.179334, "from_high_reference": -0.145906, "from_low_reference": 0.134407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.550098, "fair_value_reference": 8.248313, "structural_low": 8.411, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.793454, "energy": 81.501899, "activity_lines": [ 8.8232, 8.974382, 9.222695, 9.41843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.942, "volume": 423697, "typical_volume": 707352.9, "trend": 9.65161, "fair_value": 8.211328, "relative_strength": -15.571162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.63906, "energy": 67.253141, "activity_lines": [ 8.849267, 8.938418, 9.181519, 9.369921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.0485, "volume": 805943, "typical_volume": 720989.8, "trend": 9.613178, "fair_value": 8.220299, "relative_strength": -15.28488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.15129, "energy": 47.38378, "activity_lines": [ 8.927667, 8.937645, 9.155302, 9.331011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.393, "volume": 802775, "typical_volume": 606261.1, "trend": 9.578683, "fair_value": 8.232474, "relative_strength": -12.852466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.429915, "energy": 22.133744, "activity_lines": [ 9.1116, 9.008555, 9.164214, 9.316806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.5415, "volume": 39944, "typical_volume": 579916.15, "trend": 9.550098, "fair_value": 8.248313, "relative_strength": -11.434371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.254055, "energy": 20.417933, "activity_lines": [ 9.287733, 9.104745, 9.188743, 9.314407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }