{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c34ab52d-e8e0-433b-8327-a85ab506b442", "symbol": "SCNP", "name": "PT Selaras Citra Nusantara Perkasa Tbk", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.887, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.028, "architecture_energy": 13.836, "architecture_maturity": 38.477, "architecture_confidence": 57.142, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.2, "rotation_up": 24.74, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 52.51, "rotation_down": 34.37, "downward_expansion": 59.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.2, 153.654545, 152.026625, 154.823423 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 153.0, "trend_reference": 161.354669, "distance_from_trend": -0.051778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167.689145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087597, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.299012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.159341, "excess_performance": -0.075858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042337, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 126.318046, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.052288, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.043794, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.151816, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.032075, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.196403, "worst_return": -0.311225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083428, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363576, "worst_return": -0.175947, "sufficient": 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167.821336, "fair_value": 170.187072, "relative_strength": 10.075697, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.544726, "energy": 16.748635, "activity_lines": [ 153.933333, 151.116652, 153.034912, 159.384371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.0, "volume": 473300, "typical_volume": 2385060.0, "trend": 167.021336, "fair_value": 169.721397, "relative_strength": 9.699706, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.319766, "energy": 16.49219, "activity_lines": [ 156.2, 152.9079, 153.079483, 158.815252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 150.0, "volume": 5102800, "typical_volume": 2608835.0, "trend": 166.054669, "fair_value": 169.248796, "relative_strength": 3.53708, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.375933, "energy": 11.294449, "activity_lines": [ 154.4, 152.963239, 152.357388, 157.717101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 150.0, "volume": 536400, "typical_volume": 2605920.0, "trend": 164.654669, "fair_value": 168.738121, "relative_strength": 1.587726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.110428, "energy": 15.286652, "activity_lines": [ 152.733333, 152.8, 151.792435, 156.681316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 153.0, "volume": 1570800, "typical_volume": 2646690.0, "trend": 163.388003, "fair_value": 168.335516, "relative_strength": 3.71948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.07365, "energy": 16.431064, "activity_lines": [ 152.533333, 152.963636, 151.670339, 155.929402 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 156.0, "volume": 1510600, "typical_volume": 2631075.0, "trend": 162.754669, "fair_value": 168.040984, "relative_strength": 3.81189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.155659, "energy": 16.562562, "activity_lines": [ 153.4, 153.636364, 151.962529, 155.452757 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 153.0, "volume": 5889700, "typical_volume": 2866865.0, "trend": 161.354669, "fair_value": 167.689145, "relative_strength": 3.299012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.028257, "energy": 13.836332, "activity_lines": [ 153.2, 153.654545, 152.026625, 154.823423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }