{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c34e3de3-a0dd-44c6-9122-efe8a786abe3", "symbol": "VTIP", "name": "VANGUARD SHORT-TERM INFLATION-PROTECTED SECURITIES INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.649, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.117, "architecture_energy": 18.026, "architecture_maturity": 25.079, "architecture_confidence": 62.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.24, "rotation_up": 26.25, "upward_expansion": 18.18, "deceleration": 39.41, "rotation_down": 25.23, "downward_expansion": 54.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.653333, 49.631432, 49.673354, 49.723396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.67, "trend_reference": 49.746893, "distance_from_trend": -0.001546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.156933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.571129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000149, "excess_performance": -0.187602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001505, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.533778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17294498, "relative_activity": 1.403226, "balance": 1.533778, "dry_up": 0.973016, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00318, "annualized_volatility": 0.022629, "from_high_reference": -0.013505, "from_low_reference": 0.016733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.746893, "fair_value_reference": 47.156933, 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14.221184, "activity_lines": [ 49.628524, 49.6225, 49.711656, 49.741472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.59, "volume": 10615920, "typical_volume": 12138378.55, "trend": 49.732725, "fair_value": 47.076924, "relative_strength": -8.502024, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.974683, "energy": 22.937895, "activity_lines": [ 49.625938, 49.615819, 49.692536, 49.732635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.66, "volume": 10399931, "typical_volume": 12065351.25, "trend": 49.740475, "fair_value": 47.116691, "relative_strength": -8.511372, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.992434, "energy": 19.123214, "activity_lines": [ 49.641333, 49.623813, 49.68188, 49.727943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.67, "volume": 17294498, "typical_volume": 12324809.85, "trend": 49.746893, "fair_value": 47.156933, "relative_strength": -12.571129, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.116941, "energy": 18.026317, "activity_lines": [ 49.653333, 49.631432, 49.673354, 49.723396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }