{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c34e6b24-fb30-4a38-b1dc-e821c3c810ed", "symbol": "600356", "name": "Mudanjiang Hengfeng Paper Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.406, "architecture_energy": 35.23, "architecture_maturity": 46.419, "architecture_confidence": 62.393, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.87, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 16.28, "deceleration": 65.54, "rotation_down": 40.02, "downward_expansion": 63.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.972, 7.931327, 8.295705, 8.551183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.24, "trend_reference": 8.85354, "distance_from_trend": -0.069299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.820022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.46273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.163452, "excess_performance": -0.120248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069299, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29969935, "relative_activity": 0.982769, "balance": 0.335317, "dry_up": 0.985318, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070951, "annualized_volatility": 0.310807, "from_high_reference": -0.234201, "from_low_reference": 0.130316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.85354, "fair_value_reference": 7.820022, "structural_low": 7.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.024709, "positive_rate": 0.736842, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": 0.031767, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.168947, "worst_return": -0.082171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05529, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.0127, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.254486, "worst_return": -0.100119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085898, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.061522, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.204163, "worst_return": -0.089122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 7.95, "volume": 23042976, "typical_volume": 30570873.8, "trend": 8.96354, "fair_value": 7.813625, "relative_strength": -13.987474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.073711, "energy": 76.557112, "activity_lines": [ 7.897027, 8.192587, 8.610585, 8.815946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.74, "volume": 25839272, "typical_volume": 30442221.8, "trend": 8.94154, "fair_value": 7.814757, "relative_strength": -10.892875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.119744, "energy": 76.719673, "activity_lines": [ 7.830377, 8.049783, 8.502175, 8.737008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.41, "volume": 28715700, "typical_volume": 29932491.4, "trend": 8.897207, "fair_value": 7.813155, "relative_strength": -15.467776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.523334, "energy": 71.662426, "activity_lines": [ 7.693333, 7.884041, 8.373431, 8.638199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.18, "volume": 35665829, "typical_volume": 30221758.35, "trend": 8.87154, "fair_value": 7.816799, "relative_strength": -6.889589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.199062, "energy": 46.912109, "activity_lines": [ 7.843333, 7.893554, 8.328878, 8.591928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.24, "volume": 29969935, "typical_volume": 30495416.55, "trend": 8.85354, "fair_value": 7.820022, "relative_strength": -8.46273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.405946, "energy": 35.229767, "activity_lines": [ 7.972, 7.931327, 8.295705, 8.551183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }