{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c357b4e0-4610-41a0-bd90-b465a8a8018f", "symbol": "QDXH", "name": "Mackenzie International Equity Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.71, "architecture_energy": 73.631, "architecture_maturity": 41.839, "architecture_confidence": 74.557, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.87, "rotation_up": 72.1, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 20.59, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.505999, 175.182857, 172.238186, 169.788513 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 179.190002, "trend_reference": 167.267605, "distance_from_trend": 0.071277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 137.183091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.489525, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.081884, "excess_performance": -0.038538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03929, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081884, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.879433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 789, "relative_activity": 0.95828, "balance": 7.879433, "dry_up": 2.078096, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013998, "annualized_volatility": 0.170457, "from_high_reference": -0.007697, "from_low_reference": 0.249793 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.267605, "fair_value_reference": 137.183091, "structural_low": 153.454848, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.010035, "positive_rate": 0.617021, "directional_follow_through": 0.617021, "median_excess_return": 0.006941, "regime_survival": 0.829787, "best_return": 0.055771, "worst_return": -0.060582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.03692, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.004706, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.107809, "worst_return": -0.032806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.059502, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.001039, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.133936, "worst_return": -0.096739, "sufficient": true 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164.745322, "fair_value": 135.473695, "relative_strength": -0.203966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.343643, "energy": 92.052513, "activity_lines": [ 173.928543, 171.945756, 168.771737, 167.111478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 174.270004, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 764.2, "trend": 165.38501, "fair_value": 135.889955, "relative_strength": -0.440287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.821989, "energy": 87.412697, "activity_lines": [ 174.505687, 172.65375, 169.533493, 167.725974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.119995, "volume": 5544, "typical_volume": 925.15, "trend": 166.006403, "fair_value": 136.301123, "relative_strength": -0.159732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.947022, "energy": 88.18156, "activity_lines": [ 174.845333, 173.341919, 170.355127, 168.354038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.679993, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 885.3, "trend": 166.629225, "fair_value": 136.731125, "relative_strength": 0.668819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.704838, "energy": 86.700994, "activity_lines": [ 175.204664, 174.002578, 171.162303, 168.97814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 179.190002, "volume": 789, "typical_volume": 823.35, "trend": 167.267605, "fair_value": 137.183091, "relative_strength": -0.489525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.709948, "energy": 73.630887, "activity_lines": [ 176.505999, 175.182857, 172.238186, 169.788513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }