{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c359477f-72ce-44df-a787-db04fa222e71", "symbol": "KLXE", "name": "KLX Energy Services Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.156, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.949, "architecture_energy": 57.062, "architecture_maturity": 23.438, "architecture_confidence": 84.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 12.95, "upward_expansion": 11.39, "deceleration": 39.79, "rotation_down": 66.54, "downward_expansion": 87.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.263727, 2.547881, 2.614376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.06, "trend_reference": 2.634167, "distance_from_trend": -0.217969, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.929359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.582096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.734737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100437, "excess_performance": -0.28789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.582096, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.530097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.999733, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 698271, "relative_activity": 0.515252, "balance": 1.999733, "dry_up": 0.674611, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25354, "annualized_volatility": 0.877381, "from_high_reference": -0.542222, "from_low_reference": 0.387205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.634167, "fair_value_reference": 4.929359, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00053, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248826, "worst_return": -0.354312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.179765, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.317452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.471831, "worst_return": -0.458042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.350349, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.455257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.443662, "worst_return": -0.497669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.487059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.258706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.584582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064815, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055046, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.61, "volume": 1053432, "typical_volume": 1061517.8, "trend": 11.256, "fair_value": 8.637115, "relative_strength": -23.843077, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.292374, "energy": 15.922764, "activity_lines": [ 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"activity_lines": [ 2.445333, 2.622273, 2.784071, 2.738054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.12, "volume": 1223807, "typical_volume": 1513428.5, "trend": 2.609167, "fair_value": 5.106603, "relative_strength": -15.225412, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.673608, "energy": 33.279635, "activity_lines": [ 2.322333, 2.492364, 2.720476, 2.707656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 1096430, "typical_volume": 1476559.1, "trend": 2.629167, "fair_value": 5.047885, "relative_strength": -11.334533, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.659365, "energy": 38.941418, "activity_lines": [ 2.268, 2.396455, 2.664595, 2.679968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.19, "volume": 638430, "typical_volume": 1391020.6, "trend": 2.6375, "fair_value": 4.990641, "relative_strength": -11.506118, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.173226, "energy": 39.456857, "activity_lines": [ 2.225333, 2.334, 2.611238, 2.651634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.06, "volume": 698271, "typical_volume": 1355201.6, "trend": 2.634167, "fair_value": 4.929359, "relative_strength": -20.734737, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.94929, "energy": 57.062193, "activity_lines": [ 2.153333, 2.263727, 2.547881, 2.614376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }