{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c35eebfd-95fc-453e-b5b5-d7183c7dbc19", "symbol": "FLUT", "name": "Flutter Entertainment plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.467, "architecture_energy": 29.794, "architecture_maturity": 32.66, "architecture_confidence": 60.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.59, "rotation_up": 16.93, "upward_expansion": 7.94, "deceleration": 63.61, "rotation_down": 47.63, "downward_expansion": 64.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.274, 103.303636, 103.044476, 105.285957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 94.74, "trend_reference": 114.155, "distance_from_trend": -0.170076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 202.920397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.533117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.078192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.378876, "excess_performance": -0.504501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.241559, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.533117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896681, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36280793, "relative_activity": 2.495494, "balance": 0.896681, "dry_up": 1.186826, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118855, "annualized_volatility": 0.482982, "from_high_reference": -0.693804, "from_low_reference": 0.05607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.155, "fair_value_reference": 202.920397, "structural_low": 89.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.06476, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.050868, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.23464, "worst_return": -0.212563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109332, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.025401, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.267371, "worst_return": -0.326633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.184834, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.009765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.708011, "worst_return": -0.468819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.512192, "worst_return": -0.543205, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07733, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.211546, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.427552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110923, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 167.83, "volume": 2951, "typical_volume": 4174.25, "trend": 183.387267, "fair_value": 163.487021, "relative_strength": -3.115935, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", 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109.52 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.25, "volume": 10499742, "typical_volume": 13816420.45, "trend": 121.967, "fair_value": 204.048025, "relative_strength": -47.96504, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.35833, "energy": 14.37822, "activity_lines": [ 105.381333, 104.886, 103.861238, 107.926645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.47, "volume": 11136997, "typical_volume": 13430444.05, "trend": 118.173667, "fair_value": 203.486935, "relative_strength": -45.509908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.967781, "energy": 15.078146, "activity_lines": [ 104.958667, 105.043818, 103.906905, 106.797806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.74, "volume": 36280793, "typical_volume": 14538519.1, "trend": 114.155, "fair_value": 202.920397, "relative_strength": -51.078192, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.467441, "energy": 29.793798, "activity_lines": [ 101.274, 103.303636, 103.044476, 105.285957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }