{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c35feea9-41ab-4885-af31-6dd6d117b35c", "symbol": "SKM", "name": "Skylark Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.611, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.34, "architecture_energy": 25.2, "architecture_maturity": 11.154, "architecture_confidence": 66.674, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 56.18, "upward_expansion": 47.5, "deceleration": 21.22, "rotation_down": 17.88, "downward_expansion": 17.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.288, 0.279091, 0.274048, 0.275978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.279, "distance_from_trend": 0.039427, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.415753, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.871073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09434, "excess_performance": 0.030634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039427, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302471, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120305, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088711, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09434, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 968972, "relative_activity": 0.743704, "balance": 1.106137, "dry_up": 0.839211, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125995, "annualized_volatility": 0.74548, "from_high_reference": -0.236842, "from_low_reference": 0.8125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.279, "fair_value_reference": 0.415753, "structural_low": 0.215, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.093056, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075204, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.535714, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.172658, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.791667, "worst_return": -0.441176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.295455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.278917, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.041667, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.545455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.587854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.58, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-22", "end": "2022-05-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-05-27", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.676471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.41, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.25, "volume": 16914, "typical_volume": 42453.35, "trend": 1.183333, "fair_value": 2.877404, "relative_strength": -6.803594, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.751515, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.29, "volume": 1414454, "typical_volume": 1556828.55, "trend": 0.277, "fair_value": 0.431875, "relative_strength": 17.145062, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.649896, "energy": 7.923928, "activity_lines": [ 0.278333, 0.269182, 0.269929, 0.274269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.285, "volume": 522747, "typical_volume": 1393554.2, "trend": 0.277833, "fair_value": 0.427292, "relative_strength": 14.528308, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.641014, "energy": 19.844379, "activity_lines": [ 0.284333, 0.271909, 0.270881, 0.274785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.285, "volume": 1467463, "typical_volume": 1403351.95, "trend": 0.278667, "fair_value": 0.421907, "relative_strength": 11.093213, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.691575, "energy": 18.685656, "activity_lines": [ 0.287667, 0.275182, 0.272119, 0.275247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 968972, "typical_volume": 1302900.85, "trend": 0.279, "fair_value": 0.415753, "relative_strength": 8.871073, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.339986, "energy": 25.200135, "activity_lines": [ 0.288, 0.279091, 0.274048, 0.275978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }