{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c362d519-8da5-4dce-99cf-d350219b4d27", "symbol": "MUB", "name": "M\u00fchlbauer Holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.255, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.923, "architecture_energy": 36.15, "architecture_maturity": 9.19, "architecture_confidence": 54.041, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.44, "rotation_up": 60.58, "upward_expansion": 65.6, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 10.35, "downward_expansion": 11.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.52046, 38.806932, 38.857795, 38.651382 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.400002, "trend_reference": 38.566519, "distance_from_trend": 0.047541, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.013067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102483, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.644322, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020202, "excess_performance": -0.044438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047541, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102483, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063744, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 58.993333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1070, "relative_activity": 1.121417, "balance": 58.993333, "dry_up": 1.168841, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039973, "annualized_volatility": 0.226459, "from_high_reference": -0.106195, "from_low_reference": 0.16092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.566519, "fair_value_reference": 45.013067, "structural_low": 34.799999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003935, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.006271, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.099099, "worst_return": -0.094442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011407, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.005671, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091892, "worst_return": -0.23307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026936, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.055708, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097435, "worst_return": -0.246766, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095477, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", 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"close": 38.329556, "volume": 283, "typical_volume": 888.2, "trend": 38.466519, "fair_value": 45.249847, "relative_strength": -6.72871, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.023673, "energy": 23.270014, "activity_lines": [ 37.892971, 38.174044, 38.479657, 38.405771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.4, "volume": 2364, "typical_volume": 912.7, "trend": 38.526519, "fair_value": 45.143506, "relative_strength": -3.410918, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.435443, "energy": 20.072786, "activity_lines": [ 38.839934, 38.494124, 38.675869, 38.530512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.400002, "volume": 1070, "typical_volume": 954.15, "trend": 38.566519, "fair_value": 45.013067, "relative_strength": -5.644322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.923088, "energy": 36.150057, "activity_lines": [ 39.52046, 38.806932, 38.857795, 38.651382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }