{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c364be28-1b7f-437f-8b79-ad607ce3204c", "symbol": "ENG", "name": "BNP Paribas EASY ECPI Global ESG Infrastructure UCITS ETF EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.831, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.333, "architecture_energy": 36.69, "architecture_maturity": 46.86, "architecture_confidence": 85.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.26, "rotation_up": 41.23, "upward_expansion": 66.13, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 13.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.007448, 101.991266, 101.661723, 100.748092 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 103.131401, "trend_reference": 99.143977, "distance_from_trend": 0.040219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 82.309809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.522488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09047, "excess_performance": 0.037158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044356, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3279, "relative_activity": 1.178246, "balance": 0.956635, "dry_up": 0.960492, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016146, "annualized_volatility": 0.103119, "from_high_reference": -0.004341, "from_low_reference": 0.251987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.143977, "fair_value_reference": 82.309809, "structural_low": 93.652496, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.018435, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018435, "worst_return": 0.018435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.045423, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045423, "worst_return": 0.045423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.172084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01464, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 69.123199, "volume": 4917, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 70.278503, "volume": 1101, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 69.920799, "volume": 402, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 101.705902, "volume": 3706, "typical_volume": 2658.4, "trend": 98.017346, "fair_value": 81.879977, "relative_strength": 6.359052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.949291, "energy": 41.478823, "activity_lines": [ 101.979553, 101.99402, 101.192755, 100.061564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.828102, "volume": 2838, "typical_volume": 2668.6, "trend": 98.403873, "fair_value": 82.024529, "relative_strength": 5.758299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.113668, "energy": 35.629908, "activity_lines": [ 101.947727, 101.967835, 101.354613, 100.307419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.856903, "volume": 869, "typical_volume": 2658.1, "trend": 98.754003, "fair_value": 82.160014, "relative_strength": 2.880952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.217608, "energy": 25.172017, "activity_lines": [ 101.552988, 101.756423, 101.407258, 100.465679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.131401, "volume": 3279, "typical_volume": 2782.95, "trend": 99.143977, "fair_value": 82.309809, "relative_strength": 2.522488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.333055, "energy": 36.689855, "activity_lines": [ 102.007448, 101.991266, 101.661723, 100.748092 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }