{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c364deb4-9818-4554-82d8-a6c62a56abdc", "symbol": "XSPX", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.524, "architecture_energy": 75.077, "architecture_maturity": 68.42, "architecture_confidence": 85.177, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 66.17, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.650668, 122.663274, 120.366096, 117.360817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 126.580002, "trend_reference": 113.906667, "distance_from_trend": 0.111261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.175049, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.249352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186317, "excess_performance": 0.103434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.111261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276329, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.855851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10523, "relative_activity": 0.937085, "balance": 1.855851, "dry_up": 0.95494, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015995, "annualized_volatility": 0.109063, "from_high_reference": -0.070274, "from_low_reference": 0.232522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.906667, "fair_value_reference": 99.175049, "structural_low": 102.879997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.007263, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": 0.00382, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.061058, "worst_return": -0.079905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034437, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.034517, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.107849, "worst_return": -0.204692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044593, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.029738, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.194785, "worst_return": -0.109574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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98.564088, "relative_strength": 0.391985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.704464, "energy": 77.172223, "activity_lines": [ 122.168001, 121.488001, 118.744762, 115.940129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.860001, "volume": 7838, "typical_volume": 11482.45, "trend": 113.412667, "fair_value": 98.8521, "relative_strength": -0.188618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.254108, "energy": 66.085242, "activity_lines": [ 122.201334, 121.677819, 119.368953, 116.511312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.580002, "volume": 10523, "typical_volume": 11229.5, "trend": 113.906667, "fair_value": 99.175049, "relative_strength": 2.249352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.523565, "energy": 75.076686, "activity_lines": [ 123.650668, 122.663274, 120.366096, 117.360817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }