{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c36b7a5c-1813-487b-867c-618d7f94c63a", "symbol": "IQQU", "name": "iShares MSCI Europe ex-UK UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.048, "architecture_energy": 72.47, "architecture_maturity": 32.685, "architecture_confidence": 90.148, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 57.78, "upward_expansion": 85.63, "deceleration": 53.28, "rotation_down": 24.32, "downward_expansion": 14.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.841334, 55.566273, 54.590022, 53.817556 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.779999, "trend_reference": 53.092647, "distance_from_trend": 0.069451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.474452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.38767, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079224, "excess_performance": 0.014584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069451, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066804, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023877, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.593564, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36488, "relative_activity": 0.564771, "balance": 9.593564, "dry_up": 2.947403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018613, "annualized_volatility": 0.159614, "from_high_reference": -0.002985, "from_low_reference": 0.224062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.092647, "fair_value_reference": 45.474452, "structural_low": 47.720001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.012001, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.002111, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.078223, "worst_return": -0.10635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028605, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.001927, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.090595, "worst_return": -0.057546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064059, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.010762, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.135409, "worst_return": -0.146041, "sufficient": true }, { 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55.238335, 54.413027, 53.27589, 52.859267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.25, "volume": 39373, "typical_volume": 29129.2, "trend": 52.475046, "fair_value": 45.024705, "relative_strength": 5.572552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.803143, "energy": 78.534769, "activity_lines": [ 55.378618, 54.699859, 53.526035, 53.050169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.040001, "volume": 28781, "typical_volume": 30374.75, "trend": 52.632262, "fair_value": 45.132092, "relative_strength": 5.892811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.90888, "energy": 73.534383, "activity_lines": [ 55.328667, 54.88137, 53.749804, 53.21565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.290001, "volume": 17792, "typical_volume": 30346.65, "trend": 52.79448, "fair_value": 45.238247, "relative_strength": 4.990746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.574532, "energy": 69.666485, "activity_lines": [ 55.326, 55.054676, 53.992338, 53.387117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.630001, "volume": 678627, "typical_volume": 63657.75, "trend": 52.943716, "fair_value": 45.352801, "relative_strength": 3.227469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.252646, "energy": 53.463219, "activity_lines": [ 55.418001, 55.225511, 54.248268, 53.570054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.779999, "volume": 36488, "typical_volume": 64606.7, "trend": 53.092647, "fair_value": 45.474452, "relative_strength": 2.38767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.047523, "energy": 72.469743, "activity_lines": [ 55.841334, 55.566273, 54.590022, 53.817556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }