{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c36ba0ac-b69b-458d-a077-961e314188ee", "symbol": "VMIG", "name": "Vanguard FTSE 250 UCITS ETF GBP Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.072, "architecture_energy": 92.897, "architecture_maturity": 27.551, "architecture_confidence": 74.06, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 86.33, "upward_expansion": 98.92, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 9.76, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.638665, 44.932181, 44.121737, 43.530591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 47.139999, "trend_reference": 43.074333, "distance_from_trend": 0.094387, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.57891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.646232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09437, "excess_performance": 0.043135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094387, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254427, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036462, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.006054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 354687, "relative_activity": 0.924201, "balance": 2.006054, "dry_up": 0.645554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022005, "annualized_volatility": 0.159741, "from_high_reference": -0.001271, "from_low_reference": 0.230809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.074333, "fair_value_reference": 37.57891, "structural_low": 38.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.017474, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": 6e-05, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.05077, "worst_return": -0.115271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018766, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014697, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.065776, "worst_return": -0.023539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039376, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011731, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.098448, "worst_return": -0.013061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 59.333858, "activity_lines": [ 44.144666, 43.918545, 43.244023, 42.955408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.884998, "volume": 234338, "typical_volume": 413362.7, "trend": 42.800333, "fair_value": 37.40238, "relative_strength": 0.075237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.723955, "energy": 69.652376, "activity_lines": [ 44.442665, 44.137272, 43.468523, 43.097462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.299999, "volume": 237408, "typical_volume": 401449.4, "trend": 42.926167, "fair_value": 37.483226, "relative_strength": -0.133475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.687394, "energy": 75.449953, "activity_lines": [ 44.791665, 44.384726, 43.717785, 43.258731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.139999, "volume": 354687, "typical_volume": 383776.85, "trend": 43.074333, "fair_value": 37.57891, "relative_strength": 3.646232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.071704, "energy": 92.896696, "activity_lines": [ 45.638665, 44.932181, 44.121737, 43.530591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }