{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c36f4c7a-bb2b-4660-b112-e375184b9d57", "symbol": "VSVS", "name": "Vesuvius plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.763, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.104, "architecture_energy": 62.128, "architecture_maturity": 11.024, "architecture_confidence": 79.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.63, "rotation_up": 11.29, "upward_expansion": 15.08, "deceleration": 35.38, "rotation_down": 67.43, "downward_expansion": 83.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 413.906667, 430.810909, 439.755434, 440.47859 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 405.4, "trend_reference": 444.42135, "distance_from_trend": -0.087803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 420.682059, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.170779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130858, "excess_performance": -0.182093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5862965, "relative_activity": 2.79438, "balance": 1.152894, "dry_up": 2.248687, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07766, "annualized_volatility": 0.416505, "from_high_reference": -0.200903, "from_low_reference": 0.158691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 444.42135, "fair_value_reference": 420.682059, "structural_low": 361.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011139, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.006526, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.204978, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042171, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.06793, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.136101, "worst_return": -0.24891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020354, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056385, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.062552, "worst_return": -0.280585, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 1709768.85, "trend": 446.038392, "fair_value": 421.231213, "relative_strength": 1.37997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.592923, "energy": 13.568848, "activity_lines": [ 450.84, 453.811641, 449.516615, 447.879974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 371.0, "volume": 8620228, "typical_volume": 1967727.2, "trend": 445.083055, "fair_value": 420.831659, "relative_strength": -17.627481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.388133, "energy": 54.172717, "activity_lines": [ 423.96, 438.407273, 442.872092, 443.038788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 405.4, "volume": 5862965, "typical_volume": 2098127.4, "trend": 444.42135, "fair_value": 420.682059, "relative_strength": -10.170779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.104266, "energy": 62.127731, "activity_lines": [ 413.906667, 430.810909, 439.755434, 440.47859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }