{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c36fd1cf-77c4-47d3-8a68-c5762c76ca2e", "symbol": "ASMN", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.625, "architecture_energy": 26.171, "architecture_maturity": 51.806, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.87, "rotation_up": 35.12, "upward_expansion": 56.89, "deceleration": 87.38, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 20.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 1426.565096, 1428.24329, 1407.735164, 1360.284008 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1500.0, "trend_reference": 1300.909984, "distance_from_trend": 0.153039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 839.606153, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.786552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.162571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292968, "excess_performance": 0.118721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.786552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131626, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122522, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.802326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3, "relative_activity": 0.045872, "balance": 3.802326, "dry_up": 0.015291, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076772, "annualized_volatility": 0.462436, "from_high_reference": -0.107143, "from_low_reference": 1.450346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1300.909984, "fair_value_reference": 839.606153, "structural_low": 1092.202104, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044341, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012668, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128504, "worst_return": -0.050336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190083, "worst_return": -0.092561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044097, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.13174, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.481817, "worst_return": -0.267723, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.185092, "energy": 34.81233, "activity_lines": [ 1431.470856, 1446.698025, 1376.106073, 1322.812404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1320.329471, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 137.7, "trend": 1254.75915, "fair_value": 823.759234, "relative_strength": 6.871127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.156179, "energy": 28.421892, "activity_lines": [ 1376.962966, 1426.77128, 1376.866988, 1327.976202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1346.218262, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 101.25, "trend": 1269.758713, "fair_value": 828.353338, "relative_strength": 6.614596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.275943, "energy": 25.342348, "activity_lines": [ 1351.396041, 1411.545597, 1379.553401, 1333.876789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1465.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 75.6, "trend": 1285.929393, "fair_value": 833.861324, "relative_strength": 14.928138, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.329913, "energy": 24.564905, "activity_lines": [ 1386.675145, 1417.25808, 1392.580246, 1346.473001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1500.0, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 65.4, "trend": 1300.909984, "fair_value": 839.606153, "relative_strength": 13.162571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.625456, "energy": 26.171015, "activity_lines": [ 1426.565096, 1428.24329, 1407.735164, 1360.284008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }