{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c372cac2-edf7-4c84-8205-7dd385290822", "symbol": "DRME", "name": "Desjardins RI Emerging Markets-Net - Zero Emissions Pathway ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.545, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.763, "architecture_energy": 23.224, "architecture_maturity": 64.577, "architecture_confidence": 83.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.9, "rotation_up": 19.61, "upward_expansion": 53.43, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 31.84, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.186667, 28.591242, 28.316969, 27.510585 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.35, "trend_reference": 26.502349, "distance_from_trend": 0.069716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.515261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.651765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158645, "excess_performance": 0.038224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082858, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026518, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4400, "relative_activity": 0.77193, "balance": 0.62533, "dry_up": 0.785088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046966, "annualized_volatility": 0.2705, "from_high_reference": -0.07854, "from_low_reference": 0.400689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.502349, "fair_value_reference": 19.515261, "structural_low": 22.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017369, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.033698, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.139082, "worst_return": -0.011524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042898, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031073, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.27917, "worst_return": 0.004049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.078405, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291857, "worst_return": 0.021813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.195134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083018, 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"fair_value": 19.188795, "relative_strength": 10.426249, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.779555, "energy": 62.279945, "activity_lines": [ 29.485002, 29.098259, 27.902755, 26.997221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.07, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 7920.0, "trend": 26.010482, "fair_value": 19.27208, "relative_strength": 5.282052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.668579, "energy": 46.466084, "activity_lines": [ 29.012425, 28.97339, 28.029681, 27.142883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 6550.0, "trend": 26.203793, "fair_value": 19.352729, "relative_strength": 5.282628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.077763, "energy": 31.32003, "activity_lines": [ 28.618, 28.876214, 28.157388, 27.284142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.719999, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 5920.0, "trend": 26.356353, "fair_value": 19.431856, "relative_strength": 3.79361, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.653934, "energy": 21.921187, "activity_lines": [ 28.234667, 28.676776, 28.21715, 27.381962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.35, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 5700.0, "trend": 26.502349, "fair_value": 19.515261, "relative_strength": 2.651765, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.762878, "energy": 23.22408, "activity_lines": [ 28.186667, 28.591242, 28.316969, 27.510585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }