{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c374bff2-77eb-4084-bc82-1e772849c23b", "symbol": "FUM", "name": "Franchi Umberto Marmi S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.997, "architecture_energy": 87.117, "architecture_maturity": 11.535, "architecture_confidence": 77.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 81.27, "downward_expansion": 92.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.280667, 3.378364, 3.455714, 3.464495 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 3.510667, "distance_from_trend": -0.094189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.970108, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.360175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.221401, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140541, "excess_performance": -0.311432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.360175, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.248836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79200, "relative_activity": 3.843727, "balance": 0.248836, "dry_up": 2.217908, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035801, "annualized_volatility": 0.193407, "from_high_reference": -0.285393, "from_low_reference": 0.015974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.510667, "fair_value_reference": 4.970108, "structural_low": 3.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.022236, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026321, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.144144, "worst_return": -0.11068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.03307, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.086408, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.06845, "worst_return": -0.171554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.06709, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.238661, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.045822, "worst_return": -0.242636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.54, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 15000.0, "trend": 3.570333, "fair_value": 5.084868, "relative_strength": -19.711767, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.180965, "energy": 15.785713, "activity_lines": [ 3.542667, 3.562545, 3.530905, 3.534559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.33, "volume": 44300, "typical_volume": 16760.0, "trend": 3.557667, "fair_value": 5.05497, "relative_strength": -22.588238, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.067183, "energy": 34.931012, "activity_lines": [ 3.470667, 3.52, 3.51581, 3.519054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.33, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 16035.0, "trend": 3.546667, "fair_value": 5.025439, "relative_strength": -21.642216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.584817, "energy": 64.753782, "activity_lines": [ 3.414667, 3.480364, 3.501476, 3.504366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.28, "volume": 46300, "typical_volume": 17885.0, "trend": 3.531333, "fair_value": 4.997421, "relative_strength": -22.508585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.488733, "energy": 76.084042, "activity_lines": [ 3.356, 3.435455, 3.48319, 3.487161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 79200, "typical_volume": 20605.0, "trend": 3.510667, "fair_value": 4.970108, "relative_strength": -26.221401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.996745, "energy": 87.117233, "activity_lines": [ 3.280667, 3.378364, 3.455714, 3.464495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }