{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c377ffee-e75f-43da-a51d-815f145df42c", "symbol": "XCH", "name": "XCHG Limited American Depositary Share", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.024, "architecture_energy": 64.074, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.9, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.55, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 12.08, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 69.81, "downward_expansion": 87.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.46384, 0.561378, 0.659769, 0.773102 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.2814, "trend_reference": 0.89564, "distance_from_trend": -0.685811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.35204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.916051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -77.10733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.66816, "excess_performance": -0.855614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.685811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.916051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.771073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.66816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18399397, "relative_activity": 7.15431, "balance": 1.049375, "dry_up": 1.8742, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.02165, "annualized_volatility": 1.281556, "from_high_reference": -0.887395, "from_low_reference": 0.197447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.89564, "fair_value_reference": 3.35204, "structural_low": 0.235, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.224558, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.190022, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.038889, "worst_return": -0.34, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.687333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.705045, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.687333, "worst_return": -0.687333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.167345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.687333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 7.9, "volume": 2572225, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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"fair_value": 3.442576, "relative_strength": -46.098954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.983963, "energy": 24.746615, "activity_lines": [ 0.709473, 0.694323, 0.786729, 0.873736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.55, "volume": 197340, "typical_volume": 1666371.9, "trend": 0.944836, "fair_value": 3.41306, "relative_strength": -54.308492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.143844, "energy": 37.500016, "activity_lines": [ 0.654093, 0.668636, 0.752093, 0.846844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4427, "volume": 260417, "typical_volume": 1661113.75, "trend": 0.92226, "fair_value": 3.383056, "relative_strength": -62.838341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.421811, "energy": 41.370788, "activity_lines": [ 0.571607, 0.627803, 0.711452, 0.814448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2814, "volume": 18399397, "typical_volume": 2571791.85, "trend": 0.89564, "fair_value": 3.35204, "relative_strength": -77.10733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.024359, "energy": 64.07355, "activity_lines": [ 0.46384, 0.561378, 0.659769, 0.773102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }