{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c37b5ae6-2283-4795-9c5a-52375c74b720",
    "symbol": "FMI",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi ITALY MIB ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR C",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.997,
    "architecture_energy": 57.609,
    "architecture_maturity": 96.742,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.887,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.93,
        "rotation_up": 48.18,
        "upward_expansion": 76.54,
        "deceleration": 71.42,
        "rotation_down": 29.43,
        "downward_expansion": 14.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        129.734668,
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        126.496668,
        122.482023
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 132.800003,
    "trend_reference": 117.709334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.128203,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 89.466795,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.48435,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 11.112367,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.207053,
    "excess_performance": 0.153742,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128203,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070137,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.48435,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060156,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.111124,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022118,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.207053,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.250135,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5124,
      "relative_activity": 0.686583,
      "balance": 1.250135,
      "dry_up": 0.808115,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029657,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.194101,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004945,
      "from_low_reference": 0.350829
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 117.709334,
      "fair_value_reference": 89.466795,
      "structural_low": 98.309998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": 0.013145,
        "positive_rate": 0.568182,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.568182,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009655,
        "regime_survival": 0.704545,
        "best_return": 0.100954,
        "worst_return": -0.155455,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
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        "positive_rate": 0.9375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.9375,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032749,
        "regime_survival": 0.6875,
        "best_return": 0.12558,
        "worst_return": -0.090827,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
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        "worst_return": -0.194723,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.099705,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2023-10-06",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "volume": 3413,
        "typical_volume": 6998.7,
        "trend": 107.434667,
        "fair_value": 83.575064,
        "relative_strength": 10.656036,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.179608,
        "energy": 73.640385,
        "activity_lines": [
          115.356,
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          110.288762,
          109.213247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 119.580002,
        "volume": 19394,
        "typical_volume": 7747.3,
        "trend": 108.04,
        "fair_value": 83.963333,
        "relative_strength": 13.324128,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.040381,
        "energy": 80.903701,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 118.980003,
        "volume": 2796,
        "typical_volume": 7788.1,
        "trend": 108.647333,
        "fair_value": 84.34359,
        "relative_strength": 14.543058,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.394803,
        "energy": 76.424135,
        "activity_lines": [
          118.036002,
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          112.084667,
          110.702624
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 122.040001,
        "volume": 19998,
        "typical_volume": 8489.05,
        "trend": 109.316,
        "fair_value": 84.751154,
        "relative_strength": 14.661104,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.627825,
        "energy": 76.787845,
        "activity_lines": [
          119.530668,
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          111.566667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 123.82,
        "volume": 8690,
        "typical_volume": 8604.8,
        "trend": 109.994667,
        "fair_value": 85.165577,
        "relative_strength": 14.92541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.533731,
        "energy": 79.22005,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 123.120003,
        "volume": 1765,
        "typical_volume": 8303.05,
        "trend": 110.676667,
        "fair_value": 85.574038,
        "relative_strength": 13.385585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.01779,
        "energy": 80.320637,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 128.080002,
        "volume": 1985,
        "typical_volume": 8129.8,
        "trend": 111.444667,
        "fair_value": 86.003654,
        "relative_strength": 15.576543,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.384059,
        "energy": 90.316093,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 131.960007,
        "volume": 708,
        "typical_volume": 7921.05,
        "trend": 112.448667,
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        "relative_strength": 17.52514,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.602196,
        "energy": 94.420595,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 128.020004,
        "volume": 16350,
        "typical_volume": 8457.85,
        "trend": 113.227334,
        "fair_value": 86.890769,
        "relative_strength": 14.041108,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.654464,
        "energy": 86.214753,
        "activity_lines": [
          128.149337,
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          119.860954,
          116.800173
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 131.919998,
        "volume": 325,
        "typical_volume": 8182.35,
        "trend": 114.121334,
        "fair_value": 87.345833,
        "relative_strength": 15.29729,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.112934,
        "energy": 91.280948,
        "activity_lines": [
          129.789336,
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          121.399906,
          118.006152
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 130.800003,
        "volume": 6712,
        "typical_volume": 8281.15,
        "trend": 114.984667,
        "fair_value": 87.780962,
        "relative_strength": 16.074674,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.634584,
        "energy": 86.180281,
        "activity_lines": [
          130.516002,
          128.112366,
          122.723621,
          119.082195
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 128.440002,
        "volume": 4553,
        "typical_volume": 8151.45,
        "trend": 115.667334,
        "fair_value": 88.198846,
        "relative_strength": 13.502058,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.5242,
        "energy": 64.645855,
        "activity_lines": [
          129.944002,
          128.586548,
          123.730573,
          119.950281
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 127.260002,
        "volume": 4912,
        "typical_volume": 7712.5,
        "trend": 116.328667,
        "fair_value": 88.597115,
        "relative_strength": 11.580083,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.699546,
        "energy": 59.762603,
        "activity_lines": [
          128.954668,
          128.685093,
          124.55124,
          120.698195
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 128.139999,
        "volume": 9535,
        "typical_volume": 7711.5,
        "trend": 116.962001,
        "fair_value": 89.013974,
        "relative_strength": 10.168142,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.476014,
        "energy": 47.68154,
        "activity_lines": [
          128.572001,
          128.793093,
          125.356573,
          121.460216
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 132.800003,
        "volume": 5124,
        "typical_volume": 7463.05,
        "trend": 117.709334,
        "fair_value": 89.466795,
        "relative_strength": 11.112367,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.996877,
        "energy": 57.609179,
        "activity_lines": [
          129.734668,
          129.637456,
          126.496668,
          122.482023
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}