{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c37c3556-a81b-4b4d-b86d-3b29205f6142", "symbol": "603768", "name": "Changqing Machinery Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.605, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.675, "architecture_energy": 15.862, "architecture_maturity": 61.731, "architecture_confidence": 84.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.67, "rotation_up": 34.38, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 24.08, "downward_expansion": 61.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.646, 10.346, 10.658714, 10.873591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.22, "trend_reference": 11.178667, "distance_from_trend": 0.003698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.140716, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.965764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041845, "excess_performance": 0.001359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146165, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.496775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16912950, "relative_activity": 1.256528, "balance": 0.496775, "dry_up": 1.253692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084807, "annualized_volatility": 0.303323, "from_high_reference": -0.162687, "from_low_reference": 0.243902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.178667, "fair_value_reference": 13.140716, "structural_low": 9.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.017488, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.012373, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.215711, "worst_return": -0.145657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02013, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.558827, "worst_return": -0.157466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063548, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083262, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.581693, "worst_return": -0.137906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -10.834813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.944893, "energy": 43.794505, "activity_lines": [ 9.888, 10.082364, 10.612762, 10.885505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.0, "volume": 15015300, "typical_volume": 13365442.05, "trend": 11.191333, "fair_value": 13.171473, "relative_strength": -2.628956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.760416, "energy": 25.701101, "activity_lines": [ 10.286667, 10.187636, 10.623667, 10.871742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.22, "volume": 16912950, "typical_volume": 13460064.55, "trend": 11.178667, "fair_value": 13.140716, "relative_strength": -2.965764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.675334, "energy": 15.862235, "activity_lines": [ 10.646, 10.346, 10.658714, 10.873591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }