{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c37e95c0-c673-4f65-9186-20c24e5ff59e", "symbol": "GGLS", "name": "DIREXION DAILY GOOGL BEAR 1X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.013, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.785, "architecture_energy": 13.814, "architecture_maturity": 26.975, "architecture_confidence": 55.628, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.87, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 25.59, "deceleration": 48.75, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 49.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.44078, 58.324913, 57.543518, 59.335416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 56.8081, "trend_reference": 61.438838, "distance_from_trend": -0.075372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 115.196726, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.50686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.238818, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123535, "excess_performance": -0.310989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054398, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.50686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213926, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123535, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.441807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715253, "relative_activity": 0.011856, "balance": 4.441807, "dry_up": 0.101988, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07638, "annualized_volatility": 0.4083, "from_high_reference": -0.476318, "from_low_reference": 0.127844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.438838, "fair_value_reference": 115.196726, "structural_low": 50.368753, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1249, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240779, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.104518, "worst_return": -0.149388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.200756, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.389941, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.19848, "worst_return": -0.203032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.104128, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.104128, "worst_return": -0.104128, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.997384, "energy": 21.303965, "activity_lines": [ 57.67055, 56.65862, 58.030176, 60.124553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.9, "volume": 22468372, "typical_volume": 75073417.1, "trend": 62.108562, "fair_value": 117.313725, "relative_strength": -27.849873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.860488, "energy": 20.839199, "activity_lines": [ 58.112566, 57.280812, 57.839416, 59.897624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.57, "volume": 815961, "typical_volume": 70847810.6, "trend": 61.999597, "fair_value": 116.65844, "relative_strength": -19.510971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.768603, "energy": 12.300506, "activity_lines": [ 59.99, 58.615967, 58.132632, 59.99191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.6903, "volume": 611941, "typical_volume": 65793606.95, "trend": 61.674472, "fair_value": 115.921754, "relative_strength": -27.13225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.025695, "energy": 15.332762, "activity_lines": [ 59.055433, 58.486462, 57.802661, 59.649375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.8081, "volume": 715253, "typical_volume": 60329492.85, "trend": 61.438838, "fair_value": 115.196726, "relative_strength": -29.238818, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.785377, "energy": 13.814296, "activity_lines": [ 58.44078, 58.324913, 57.543518, 59.335416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }