{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c37ec503-277d-4dbc-8d69-6a0e8c50bd6f", "symbol": "TMFE", "name": "MOTLEY FOOL CAPITAL EFFICIENCY 100 INDEX ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.193, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.999, "architecture_energy": 61.215, "architecture_maturity": 13.218, "architecture_confidence": 70.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.42, "rotation_up": 66.3, "upward_expansion": 86.72, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 16.68, "downward_expansion": 11.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.205153, 29.943362, 29.708213, 29.375223 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.9741, "trend_reference": 29.0776, "distance_from_trend": 0.065222, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.674099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.989074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068441, "excess_performance": -0.057184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068441, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718289, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45948, "relative_activity": 0.684732, "balance": 0.718289, "dry_up": 0.673671, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025774, "annualized_volatility": 0.150053, "from_high_reference": -0.006285, "from_low_reference": 0.175042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.0776, "fair_value_reference": 25.674099, "structural_low": 26.36, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.014902, "positive_rate": 0.703704, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.003716, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.064019, "worst_return": -0.107576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035247, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003297, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.157803, "worst_return": -0.055353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072542, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004812, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.243345, "worst_return": 0.012766, "sufficient": true }, { 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59275, "typical_volume": 74381.7, "trend": 28.99646, "fair_value": 25.520756, "relative_strength": -6.709437, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.276307, "energy": 40.91697, "activity_lines": [ 29.677773, 29.609396, 29.425063, 29.176538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.137, "volume": 41233, "typical_volume": 70045.85, "trend": 29.035027, "fair_value": 25.594508, "relative_strength": -4.495907, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.707788, "energy": 45.893166, "activity_lines": [ 29.840413, 29.702327, 29.53215, 29.250122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.9741, "volume": 45948, "typical_volume": 67103.65, "trend": 29.0776, "fair_value": 25.674099, "relative_strength": -4.989074, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.998785, "energy": 61.21533, "activity_lines": [ 30.205153, 29.943362, 29.708213, 29.375223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }