{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c37f5944-1b5c-4826-8102-5f2095b86a38", "symbol": "FXI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.99, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.278, "architecture_energy": 23.807, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.64, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.6, "rotation_up": 45.78, "upward_expansion": 27.73, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 16.27, "downward_expansion": 50.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.488667, 34.490647, 34.68897, 35.091124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.17, "trend_reference": 35.893626, "distance_from_trend": 0.0077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.969729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.605516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070847, "excess_performance": -0.196472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053668, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070847, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76703928, "relative_activity": 0.593169, "balance": 0.715941, "dry_up": 0.785128, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042292, "annualized_volatility": 0.201998, "from_high_reference": -0.122839, "from_low_reference": 0.159667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.893626, "fair_value_reference": 30.969729, "structural_low": 31.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.029491, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.015798, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.196728, "worst_return": -0.102145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053757, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.088647, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.209052, "worst_return": -0.158399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07808, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051051, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.14183, "worst_return": -0.160788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 77.003116, "activity_lines": [ 32.762479, 33.530452, 34.556747, 35.303502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.13, "volume": 110034650, "typical_volume": 143812597.55, "trend": 36.225974, "fair_value": 30.799817, "relative_strength": -16.24059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.324053, "energy": 57.481603, "activity_lines": [ 33.118667, 33.504345, 34.462144, 35.159283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.58, "volume": 102300130, "typical_volume": 137732352.8, "trend": 36.090639, "fair_value": 30.842796, "relative_strength": -14.231675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.854312, "energy": 33.852662, "activity_lines": [ 33.684667, 33.611559, 34.424075, 35.053091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.5, "volume": 117067717, "typical_volume": 135727085.0, "trend": 35.989857, "fair_value": 30.903726, "relative_strength": -10.136217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.111917, "energy": 18.026726, "activity_lines": [ 34.805333, 34.092417, 34.573499, 35.079501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.17, "volume": 76703928, "typical_volume": 129312185.15, "trend": 35.893626, "fair_value": 30.969729, "relative_strength": -13.605516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.27785, "energy": 23.80733, "activity_lines": [ 35.488667, 34.490647, 34.68897, 35.091124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }