{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3828e9a-87cb-40cd-b4c4-b31914b4a997", "symbol": "AW1Z", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.564, "architecture_energy": 59.254, "architecture_maturity": 64.525, "architecture_confidence": 73.317, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.38, "rotation_up": 50.76, "upward_expansion": 80.73, "deceleration": 68.76, "rotation_down": 28.44, "downward_expansion": 9.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.9384, 18.897564, 18.559638, 18.211355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.34, "trend_reference": 17.865534, "distance_from_trend": 0.082531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.584575, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.818024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103755, "excess_performance": 0.039116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073767, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02818, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103755, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 54.827309, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322, "relative_activity": 0.354528, "balance": 54.827309, "dry_up": 0.492981, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021064, "annualized_volatility": 0.175804, "from_high_reference": -0.002784, "from_low_reference": 0.224206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.865534, "fair_value_reference": 15.584575, "structural_low": 15.798, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.004583, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.002249, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.083432, "worst_return": -0.100771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041167, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.008328, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.093891, "worst_return": -0.056176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064699, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.149941, "worst_return": -0.035909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.579519, "energy": 86.608597, "activity_lines": [ 18.649333, 18.282546, 17.801972, 17.644035 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.804001, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 931.35, "trend": 17.509267, "fair_value": 15.371806, "relative_strength": 7.831794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.619476, "energy": 84.20716, "activity_lines": [ 18.749467, 18.420728, 17.920438, 17.731781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.174, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 922.8, "trend": 17.584533, "fair_value": 15.411267, "relative_strength": 5.044426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.452346, "energy": 90.80558, "activity_lines": [ 18.928667, 18.6096, 18.068038, 17.839183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.804001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 887.1, "trend": 17.6488, "fair_value": 15.44519, "relative_strength": 5.725954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.877338, "energy": 83.588496, "activity_lines": [ 18.927201, 18.6996, 18.172229, 17.917858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.610001, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 848.4, "trend": 17.7014, "fair_value": 15.477998, "relative_strength": 5.415311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.986716, "energy": 64.780454, "activity_lines": [ 18.828001, 18.7292, 18.253648, 17.979871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.719999, "volume": 332, "typical_volume": 844.9, "trend": 17.758134, "fair_value": 15.51019, "relative_strength": 4.703214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.275435, "energy": 53.712229, "activity_lines": [ 18.7736, 18.761891, 18.342648, 18.045587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.798, "volume": 1077, "typical_volume": 892.15, "trend": 17.810467, "fair_value": 15.545434, "relative_strength": 2.798176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.868597, "energy": 42.947865, "activity_lines": [ 18.765467, 18.786437, 18.430143, 18.112675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.34, "volume": 322, "typical_volume": 908.25, "trend": 17.865534, "fair_value": 15.584575, "relative_strength": 2.818024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.564012, "energy": 59.254461, "activity_lines": [ 18.9384, 18.897564, 18.559638, 18.211355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }