{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3882b92-ccaf-4eae-ba42-92026402da16", "symbol": "003031", "name": "Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.319, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.261, "architecture_energy": 38.059, "architecture_maturity": 51.674, "architecture_confidence": 49.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.14, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 17.74, "deceleration": 71.88, "rotation_down": 65.87, "downward_expansion": 42.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.846666, 126.153156, 133.741928, 125.553513 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 115.860001, "trend_reference": 112.770229, "distance_from_trend": 0.027399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.634254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.640281, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.146115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.461956, "excess_performance": 0.454556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283983, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.640281, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.385182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.271461, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.461956, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56098697, "relative_activity": 1.060266, "balance": 0.69905, "dry_up": 0.990692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204014, "annualized_volatility": 0.820954, "from_high_reference": -0.393403, "from_low_reference": 1.304296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.770229, "fair_value_reference": 70.634254, "structural_low": 71.699997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018218, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005179, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.45682, "worst_return": -0.103098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062069, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429487, "worst_return": -0.216078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055226, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.1927, "worst_return": -0.176316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 54.213444, "activity_lines": [ 158.93333, 156.493693, 141.561726, 126.62082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 107.279999, "volume": 45842992, "typical_volume": 53854104.15, "trend": 109.664896, "fair_value": 70.910429, "relative_strength": 26.12318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.123768, "energy": 17.9149, "activity_lines": [ 141.199331, 147.926714, 139.900455, 126.534418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.0, "volume": 56991893, "typical_volume": 54235560.5, "trend": 110.75223, "fair_value": 70.793202, "relative_strength": 22.893051, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.538441, "energy": 21.306194, "activity_lines": [ 125.486665, 139.715398, 137.99047, 126.297973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.699997, "volume": 50736618, "typical_volume": 53220789.95, "trend": 111.346896, "fair_value": 70.630312, "relative_strength": 10.616974, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.269466, "energy": 42.528679, "activity_lines": [ 110.693331, 130.433327, 134.884532, 125.262345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.860001, "volume": 56098697, "typical_volume": 52910026.95, "trend": 112.770229, "fair_value": 70.634254, "relative_strength": 27.146115, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.261268, "energy": 38.05886, "activity_lines": [ 108.846666, 126.153156, 133.741928, 125.553513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }