{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c38cd12a-6650-407d-989f-a11f3a58c8a8", "symbol": "RQ1", "name": "Overseas Education Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.886, "architecture_energy": 11.314, "architecture_maturity": 15.561, "architecture_confidence": 63.786, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.26, "rotation_up": 31.66, "upward_expansion": 31.42, "deceleration": 43.37, "rotation_down": 20.61, "downward_expansion": 39.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.160733, 0.159291, 0.158819, 0.159548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.159, "trend_reference": 0.162331, "distance_from_trend": -0.020517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.178665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.488027, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088392, "excess_performance": -0.243227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088392, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.272092, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100200, "relative_activity": 1.278306, "balance": 0.272092, "dry_up": 0.798622, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05225, "annualized_volatility": 0.278699, "from_high_reference": -0.14478, "from_low_reference": 0.074324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.162331, "fair_value_reference": 0.178665, "structural_low": 0.148, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.010523, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.004836, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.06, "worst_return": -0.122342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023806, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.052392, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.049998, "worst_return": -0.092626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027042, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.064644, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.049998, "worst_return": -0.089733, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005049, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"down", "direction": -53.465664, "energy": 34.861981, "activity_lines": [ 0.155667, 0.156658, 0.157852, 0.160641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 196010.0, "trend": 0.164536, "fair_value": 0.179633, "relative_strength": -20.313931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.373282, "energy": 26.70699, "activity_lines": [ 0.1572, 0.157091, 0.157945, 0.160311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.16, "volume": 25100, "typical_volume": 108275.0, "trend": 0.16396, "fair_value": 0.179386, "relative_strength": -20.224965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.407303, "energy": 16.324488, "activity_lines": [ 0.158267, 0.157455, 0.158098, 0.160018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 85085.0, "trend": 0.163383, "fair_value": 0.17914, "relative_strength": -20.694719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.24948, "energy": 18.028091, "activity_lines": [ 0.159333, 0.157909, 0.158241, 0.159763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.164, "volume": 125100, "typical_volume": 76670.0, "trend": 0.16294, "fair_value": 0.178918, "relative_strength": -18.65524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.550193, "energy": 11.644487, "activity_lines": [ 0.161333, 0.159091, 0.158794, 0.159802 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.159, "volume": 100200, "typical_volume": 78385.0, "trend": 0.162331, "fair_value": 0.178665, "relative_strength": -21.488027, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.886015, "energy": 11.314273, "activity_lines": [ 0.160733, 0.159291, 0.158819, 0.159548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }