{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c38e7b7b-2f07-4b15-bd6a-c273a2f4679f", "symbol": "HTOO", "name": "Fusion Fuel Green PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.794, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.585, "architecture_energy": 46.83, "architecture_maturity": 28.936, "architecture_confidence": 86.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.99, "rotation_up": 17.65, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 45.54, "rotation_down": 58.11, "downward_expansion": 80.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.551573, 2.611847, 2.783608, 2.876868 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.43, "trend_reference": 3.082587, "distance_from_trend": -0.211701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.091938, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.872721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.462679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.311615, "excess_performance": -0.499068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.872721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.404627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133357, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.14796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43095, "relative_activity": 0.377608, "balance": 2.14796, "dry_up": 0.254746, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158145, "annualized_volatility": 0.644958, "from_high_reference": -0.576567, "from_low_reference": 0.008299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.082587, "fair_value_reference": 19.091938, "structural_low": 2.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.025207, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.05959, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.945946, "worst_return": -0.463744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.215712, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.296718, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.330275, "worst_return": -0.644749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.348269, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.472895, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.843368, "worst_return": -0.699168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2.746, 2.897273, 2.96019, 3.087244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.5916, "volume": 19422, "typical_volume": 629163.1, "trend": 3.262813, "fair_value": 20.973694, "relative_strength": -41.200828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.734864, "energy": 58.693115, "activity_lines": [ 2.675867, 2.830291, 2.91939, 3.041083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.566, "volume": 17514, "typical_volume": 627488.7, "trend": 3.21568, "fair_value": 20.498797, "relative_strength": -38.49351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.146462, "energy": 59.424754, "activity_lines": [ 2.619093, 2.76908, 2.880859, 2.996127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.6, "volume": 24583, "typical_volume": 129905.1, "trend": 3.17192, "fair_value": 20.003925, "relative_strength": -34.875022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.291364, "energy": 49.717824, "activity_lines": [ 2.599253, 2.717033, 2.849347, 2.956406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.65, "volume": 31101, "typical_volume": 120556.75, "trend": 3.14092, "fair_value": 19.547515, "relative_strength": -32.69733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.798361, "energy": 37.221826, "activity_lines": [ 2.613413, 2.681167, 2.825882, 2.922734 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.43, "volume": 43095, "typical_volume": 114126.35, "trend": 3.082587, "fair_value": 19.091938, "relative_strength": -40.462679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.58506, "energy": 46.829779, "activity_lines": [ 2.551573, 2.611847, 2.783608, 2.876868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }