{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c392c763-51ff-4cd4-8ef0-e3abf2ddfe2e", "symbol": "DPLM", "name": "Diploma PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.637, "architecture_energy": 64.687, "architecture_maturity": 51.22, "architecture_confidence": 78.724, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 72.95, "upward_expansion": 85.65, "deceleration": 51.29, "rotation_down": 15.2, "downward_expansion": 9.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 7441.333333, 7296.181818, 7141.411988, 6867.068145 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7700.0, "trend_reference": 6469.22793, "distance_from_trend": 0.19025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4662.920501, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.651326, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.342345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.423329, "excess_performance": 0.372094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.651326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044297, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.183423, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.423329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.52746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2582868, "relative_activity": 1.313811, "balance": 1.52746, "dry_up": 1.379912, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048888, "annualized_volatility": 0.314372, "from_high_reference": -0.008371, "from_low_reference": 0.549338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6469.22793, "fair_value_reference": 4662.920501, "structural_low": 4969.863465, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.009346, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.003093, "regime_survival": 0.675676, "best_return": 0.154914, "worst_return": -0.151424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014884, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.019309, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.266063, "worst_return": -0.1928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063492, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.013578, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.361123, "worst_return": -0.172516, 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80.222695, "energy": 57.216667, "activity_lines": [ 7230.333333, 7151.541948, 7008.60831, 6719.642123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7320.0, "volume": 1781691, "typical_volume": 2011912.4, "trend": 6401.207764, "fair_value": 4634.347954, "relative_strength": 13.248978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.556393, "energy": 48.755915, "activity_lines": [ 7280.0, 7192.0, 7062.331908, 6783.275098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7700.0, "volume": 2582868, "typical_volume": 1965935.4, "trend": 6469.22793, "fair_value": 4662.920501, "relative_strength": 18.342345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.636714, "energy": 64.686653, "activity_lines": [ 7441.333333, 7296.181818, 7141.411988, 6867.068145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }