{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3934fab-47a2-4746-881b-6bfbecc786bd", "symbol": "WILD", "name": "WildBrain Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.657, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.697, "architecture_energy": 9.285, "architecture_maturity": 8.882, "architecture_confidence": 39.46, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.83, "rotation_up": 32.87, "upward_expansion": 23.01, "deceleration": 30.5, "rotation_down": 23.29, "downward_expansion": 52.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.32, 1.293273, 1.302333, 1.31086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.37, "trend_reference": 1.326333, "distance_from_trend": 0.032923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.45141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.05609, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.285918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045802, "excess_performance": -0.07462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.05609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163000, "relative_activity": 0.500384, "balance": 0.650519, "dry_up": 0.733615, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104997, "annualized_volatility": 0.608797, "from_high_reference": -0.38565, "from_low_reference": 0.234234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.326333, "fair_value_reference": 1.45141, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047826, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.053845, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.298246, "worst_return": -0.156334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.10304, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.147809, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.494253, "worst_return": -0.350404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018275, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.407008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370968, "worst_return": -0.26506, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.443396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", 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586800, "typical_volume": 352155.0, "trend": 1.38, "fair_value": 1.463718, "relative_strength": -20.41523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.03704, "energy": 19.732326, "activity_lines": [ 1.276, 1.275818, 1.306048, 1.323312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.29, "volume": 348500, "typical_volume": 360560.0, "trend": 1.357667, "fair_value": 1.461282, "relative_strength": -23.874398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.303257, "energy": 16.610311, "activity_lines": [ 1.285333, 1.276364, 1.303381, 1.317505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 256300, "typical_volume": 350310.0, "trend": 1.337667, "fair_value": 1.457821, "relative_strength": -28.197189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.414825, "energy": 18.556937, "activity_lines": [ 1.264667, 1.261818, 1.292286, 1.307333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 188100, "typical_volume": 334855.0, "trend": 1.327667, "fair_value": 1.454103, "relative_strength": -17.685732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.648973, "energy": 12.500838, "activity_lines": [ 1.294667, 1.275455, 1.296667, 1.308129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.37, "volume": 163000, "typical_volume": 325750.0, "trend": 1.326333, "fair_value": 1.45141, "relative_strength": -18.285918, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.696646, "energy": 9.284747, "activity_lines": [ 1.32, 1.293273, 1.302333, 1.31086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }