{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3963f49-dc6c-4aa5-9be0-18933d497add", "symbol": "GMUB", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.714, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.94, "architecture_energy": 40.651, "architecture_maturity": 9.401, "architecture_confidence": 67.423, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.68, "rotation_up": 11.16, "upward_expansion": 5.7, "deceleration": 49.25, "rotation_down": 65.42, "downward_expansion": 74.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.74493, 50.89957, 50.935824, 50.937504 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.83, "trend_reference": 50.944897, "distance_from_trend": -0.002255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.101093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.318847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003352, "excess_performance": -0.128977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002255, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.594239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248073, "relative_activity": 1.25414, "balance": 1.594239, "dry_up": 1.373695, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006135, "annualized_volatility": 0.031028, "from_high_reference": -0.015946, "from_low_reference": 0.048201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.944897, "fair_value_reference": 49.101093, "structural_low": 50.237408, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0023, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002596, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.009625, "worst_return": -0.005026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.661673, "activity_lines": [ 50.906144, 51.009401, 50.972857, 50.966906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.596218, "volume": 310217, "typical_volume": 199289.0, "trend": 50.942532, "fair_value": 49.084783, "relative_strength": -7.866773, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.706343, "energy": 32.957921, "activity_lines": [ 50.763709, 50.932339, 50.942386, 50.944764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.83, "volume": 248073, "typical_volume": 197803.2, "trend": 50.944897, "fair_value": 49.101093, "relative_strength": -10.318847, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.94033, "energy": 40.650799, "activity_lines": [ 50.74493, 50.89957, 50.935824, 50.937504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }