{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c397933e-682e-4a25-b693-5fd3cb03bda8", "symbol": "ILF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST LATIN AMERICA 40 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.152, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.397, "architecture_energy": 9.848, "architecture_maturity": 10.678, "architecture_confidence": 86.424, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.38, "rotation_up": 44.36, "upward_expansion": 29.81, "deceleration": 33.61, "rotation_down": 19.81, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.743333, 34.438796, 34.535282, 34.616039 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.62, "trend_reference": 34.667316, "distance_from_trend": -0.001365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.080546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.190891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027139, "excess_performance": -0.152763, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14620049, "relative_activity": 1.117436, "balance": 0.854746, "dry_up": 0.926231, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041873, "annualized_volatility": 0.231135, "from_high_reference": -0.089301, "from_low_reference": 0.398809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.667316, "fair_value_reference": 26.080546, "structural_low": 32.040994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.016525, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.013789, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.130164, "worst_return": -0.098136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024123, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038302, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.232856, "worst_return": -0.086268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022619, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237291, "worst_return": -0.083454, "sufficient": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 34.51, "volume": 8511589, "typical_volume": 15048059.05, "trend": 34.106173, "fair_value": 25.792681, "relative_strength": 0.040653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.887163, "energy": 11.621126, "activity_lines": [ 34.063383, 34.029745, 34.498888, 34.527013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.07, "volume": 11172799, "typical_volume": 14420334.95, "trend": 34.254344, "fair_value": 25.859014, "relative_strength": 0.021571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.530873, "energy": 9.263982, "activity_lines": [ 34.065333, 34.005763, 34.449534, 34.524679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.64, "volume": 10270582, "typical_volume": 13636732.05, "trend": 34.397644, "fair_value": 25.926534, "relative_strength": 1.951449, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.225033, "energy": 5.596819, "activity_lines": [ 34.28, 34.119979, 34.463751, 34.54956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.37, "volume": 12410208, "typical_volume": 13227626.35, "trend": 34.56193, "fair_value": 26.004491, "relative_strength": 2.605366, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.856635, "energy": 14.159043, "activity_lines": [ 34.688667, 34.355572, 34.541511, 34.612293 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.62, "volume": 14620049, "typical_volume": 13083570.4, "trend": 34.667316, "fair_value": 26.080546, "relative_strength": -3.190891, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.396655, "energy": 9.847932, "activity_lines": [ 34.743333, 34.438796, 34.535282, 34.616039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }