{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3994df0-49b9-4080-9388-5508b41178fc", "symbol": "5FW", "name": "Acesian Partners Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.889, "architecture_energy": 32.361, "architecture_maturity": 74.232, "architecture_confidence": 56.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.44, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 14.6, "deceleration": 65.39, "rotation_down": 47.39, "downward_expansion": 66.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023933, 0.023818, 0.025057, 0.025959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.027667, "distance_from_trend": -0.096386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.037526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.138216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.321502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.103677, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 684800, "relative_activity": 1.240894, "balance": 3.103677, "dry_up": 0.603142, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113846, "annualized_volatility": 0.615839, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027667, "fair_value_reference": 0.037526, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.000593, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.046512, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010225, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071787, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"direction": -69.031328, "energy": 65.546892, "activity_lines": [ 0.023867, 0.025091, 0.026119, 0.027318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.022, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 560090.0, "trend": 0.029, "fair_value": 0.038154, "relative_strength": -39.619265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.675474, "energy": 70.536727, "activity_lines": [ 0.023133, 0.024309, 0.025652, 0.026843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.021, "volume": 180100, "typical_volume": 513810.0, "trend": 0.028533, "fair_value": 0.037942, "relative_strength": -42.352014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.580779, "energy": 77.846824, "activity_lines": [ 0.0222, 0.023473, 0.025148, 0.026327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 461200, "typical_volume": 526370.0, "trend": 0.028167, "fair_value": 0.037744, "relative_strength": -28.330712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.863856, "energy": 43.805727, "activity_lines": [ 0.023267, 0.023709, 0.025148, 0.026163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 684800, "typical_volume": 551860.0, "trend": 0.027667, "fair_value": 0.037526, "relative_strength": -31.138216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.888588, "energy": 32.360633, "activity_lines": [ 0.023933, 0.023818, 0.025057, 0.025959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }