{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c39ce392-5525-492b-bf7b-2ac51c0fe2e8", "symbol": "CSJP", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares MSCI Japan ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.649, "architecture_energy": 34.921, "architecture_maturity": 58.206, "architecture_confidence": 79.055, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.5, "rotation_up": 39.43, "upward_expansion": 65.92, "deceleration": 85.44, "rotation_down": 26.81, "downward_expansion": 15.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 251.965995, 252.195997, 248.463904, 243.97301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 259.209991, "trend_reference": 238.636333, "distance_from_trend": 0.086213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 195.143269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328306, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.240137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119504, "excess_performance": -0.051388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057454, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328306, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044092, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.171808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4209, "relative_activity": 0.612619, "balance": 3.171808, "dry_up": 0.886144, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031911, "annualized_volatility": 0.200518, "from_high_reference": -0.00181, "from_low_reference": 0.316923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 238.636333, "fair_value_reference": 195.143269, "structural_low": 214.550003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026564, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011695, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.086172, "worst_return": -0.042156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015411, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157851, "worst_return": -0.02194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001954, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000396, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107973, "worst_return": -0.08586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 247.589996, "volume": 4110, "typical_volume": 7308.95, "trend": 237.437, "fair_value": 194.491731, "relative_strength": -2.848761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.148957, "energy": 26.88153, "activity_lines": [ 249.090665, 250.602544, 246.750476, 242.568301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 259.209991, "volume": 4209, "typical_volume": 6870.5, "trend": 238.636333, "fair_value": 195.143269, "relative_strength": -1.240137, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.649031, "energy": 34.920602, "activity_lines": [ 251.965995, 252.195997, 248.463904, 243.97301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }