{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c39f1c2e-1dba-4eba-bafa-0276f957bf7b", "symbol": "NICO", "name": "Nicoccino Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.398, "architecture_energy": 18.065, "architecture_maturity": 17.623, "architecture_confidence": 55.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.47, "rotation_up": 41.15, "upward_expansion": 72.18, "deceleration": 58.41, "rotation_down": 23.42, "downward_expansion": 5.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.097333, 1.089091, 1.085643, 1.071086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.03, "trend_reference": 1.051333, "distance_from_trend": -0.020292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.625481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.366341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.237323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035176, "excess_performance": -0.026319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.366341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036903, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03385, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.128849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6670, "relative_activity": 0.339004, "balance": 0.128849, "dry_up": 2.159268, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.297237, "annualized_volatility": 1.315444, "from_high_reference": -0.414773, "from_low_reference": 0.716667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.051333, "fair_value_reference": 1.625481, "structural_low": 0.785, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.042902, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.588235, "worst_return": -0.281915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.140244, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.167051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.391753, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.089309, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032028, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.530612, "worst_return": -0.356436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.387225, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.528308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.314433, "worst_return": -0.50495, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.534783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.362069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.391089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.273109, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.76, "volume": 104097, "typical_volume": 65657.5, "trend": 2.117, "fair_value": 3.046647, "relative_strength": 25.476872, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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[ 1.065667, 1.047636, 1.060357, 1.046269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.2, "volume": 121, "typical_volume": 22095.25, "trend": 1.023833, "fair_value": 1.65766, "relative_strength": 6.712085, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.287162, "energy": 19.386932, "activity_lines": [ 1.125333, 1.072818, 1.07531, 1.05871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.17, "volume": 14700, "typical_volume": 20588.05, "trend": 1.0395, "fair_value": 1.646571, "relative_strength": 3.305976, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.607262, "energy": 27.805786, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.089636, 1.0865, 1.06814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 148446, "typical_volume": 24365.2, "trend": 1.044833, "fair_value": 1.635032, "relative_strength": -3.624844, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.405969, "energy": 27.582429, "activity_lines": [ 1.145333, 1.094818, 1.089762, 1.072043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.03, "volume": 6670, "typical_volume": 19675.3, "trend": 1.051333, "fair_value": 1.625481, "relative_strength": -10.237323, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.397694, "energy": 18.064816, "activity_lines": [ 1.097333, 1.089091, 1.085643, 1.071086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }