{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3a0fa31-ccfc-47bf-92f5-7bc2b5006382", "symbol": "1304", "name": "Al Yamamah Steel Industries Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.268, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.036, "architecture_energy": 17.577, "architecture_maturity": 24.014, "architecture_confidence": 53.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.13, "rotation_up": 22.78, "upward_expansion": 21.31, "deceleration": 63.22, "rotation_down": 51.34, "downward_expansion": 36.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.211999, 39.18, 39.348095, 38.909763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.599998, "trend_reference": 38.444667, "distance_from_trend": 0.030052, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.404647, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.672573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044855, "excess_performance": 0.076684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046474, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086726, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.223665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1814553, "relative_activity": 1.017213, "balance": 1.223665, "dry_up": 0.795738, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067832, "annualized_volatility": 0.330176, "from_high_reference": -0.089655, "from_low_reference": 0.357094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.444667, "fair_value_reference": 33.404647, "structural_low": 33.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014454, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009493, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208124, "worst_return": -0.146979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021898, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008043, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.706449, "worst_return": -0.108889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07432, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.079755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.48538, "worst_return": -0.184468, "sufficient": true 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"fair_value": 33.201557, "relative_strength": 11.293255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.783915, "energy": 47.566929, "activity_lines": [ 40.952001, 40.356728, 39.703238, 39.054409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.0, "volume": 1301608, "typical_volume": 1679296.6, "trend": 38.276, "fair_value": 33.267995, "relative_strength": 5.033387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.34022, "energy": 18.831127, "activity_lines": [ 39.972001, 40.008001, 39.636476, 39.04628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.919998, "volume": 1373751, "typical_volume": 1718061.1, "trend": 38.36, "fair_value": 33.323216, "relative_strength": -1.624095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.531317, "energy": 25.143018, "activity_lines": [ 38.113333, 39.138182, 39.269333, 38.829763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.599998, "volume": 1814553, "typical_volume": 1783847.85, "trend": 38.444667, "fair_value": 33.404647, "relative_strength": 8.672573, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.035529, "energy": 17.577201, "activity_lines": [ 38.211999, 39.18, 39.348095, 38.909763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }