{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3bca4ba-ec62-4ccd-9682-beb53b2122a6", "symbol": "603818", "name": "Qu Mei Home Furnishings Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.604, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.691, "architecture_energy": 10.533, "architecture_maturity": 66.07, "architecture_confidence": 63.459, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.4, "rotation_up": 31.86, "upward_expansion": 21.54, "deceleration": 39.65, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 55.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.328, 3.239636, 3.281095, 3.365935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.56, "trend_reference": 3.482333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.727565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.412276, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03523, "excess_performance": 0.007973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022303, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034123, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085143, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112808101, "relative_activity": 1.361799, "balance": 0.678751, "dry_up": 1.707, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1035, "annualized_volatility": 0.403691, "from_high_reference": -0.323194, "from_low_reference": 0.338346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.482333, "fair_value_reference": 3.727565, "structural_low": 2.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.424242, "median_excess_return": -0.003761, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.324918, "worst_return": -0.219067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033189, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.046785, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.240395, "worst_return": -0.314402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.216146, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.249123, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.10864, "worst_return": -0.503043, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.957887, "energy": 25.717001, "activity_lines": [ 3.197333, 3.166364, 3.300143, 3.403204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.09, "volume": 171125948, "typical_volume": 77051274.2, "trend": 3.495667, "fair_value": 3.75343, "relative_strength": -14.613192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.197342, "energy": 21.209226, "activity_lines": [ 3.182667, 3.141273, 3.269857, 3.375591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.27, "volume": 120296253, "typical_volume": 80366871.85, "trend": 3.484, "fair_value": 3.739982, "relative_strength": -9.373234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.262069, "energy": 18.156406, "activity_lines": [ 3.218667, 3.161455, 3.260333, 3.361032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.56, "volume": 112808101, "typical_volume": 82837571.9, "trend": 3.482333, "fair_value": 3.727565, "relative_strength": -3.412276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.691018, "energy": 10.533439, "activity_lines": [ 3.328, 3.239636, 3.281095, 3.365935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }