{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3be0042-2861-48a3-af16-47fd7393de08", "symbol": "VTRU3", "name": "Vitru Educa\u00e7\u00e3o S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.972, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.295, "architecture_energy": 53.713, "architecture_maturity": 25.051, "architecture_confidence": 92.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.44, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 10.74, "deceleration": 40.01, "rotation_down": 56.68, "downward_expansion": 79.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.677333, 12.904727, 13.164529, 13.441137 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.71, "trend_reference": 13.938566, "distance_from_trend": -0.088142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.853966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.600997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176357, "excess_performance": -0.119309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013539, "read": "Falling" 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11.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025452, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030076, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009701, "worst_return": -0.060606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"close": 13.0, "volume": 2025100, "typical_volume": 3037860.0, "trend": 14.035603, "fair_value": 10.837395, "relative_strength": -7.241165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.170618, "energy": 49.109752, "activity_lines": [ 12.747333, 12.964, 13.240373, 13.52666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.71, "volume": 2120400, "typical_volume": 3053785.0, "trend": 13.938566, "fair_value": 10.853966, "relative_strength": -6.600997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.295096, "energy": 53.712652, "activity_lines": [ 12.677333, 12.904727, 13.164529, 13.441137 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }