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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.57, "architecture_energy": 44.744, "architecture_maturity": 44.638, "architecture_confidence": 51.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.46, "rotation_up": 46.72, "upward_expansion": 68.52, "deceleration": 65.08, "rotation_down": 24.2, "downward_expansion": 18.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 557.28667, 557.331094, 535.01309, 528.765155 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 560.859985, "trend_reference": 525.789166, "distance_from_trend": 0.066701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 640.77563, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124717, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.325854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041595, "excess_performance": 0.098644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124717, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.29704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.417647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 565, "relative_activity": 1.921442, "balance": 15.417647, "dry_up": 0.95647, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034643, "annualized_volatility": 0.209308, "from_high_reference": -0.219282, "from_low_reference": 0.217481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 525.789166, "fair_value_reference": 640.77563, 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"mixed", "direction": 39.509217, "energy": 76.864664, "activity_lines": [ 565.814665, 546.714957, 523.595839, 522.641037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 552.580017, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 286.4, "trend": 524.243516, "fair_value": 640.951085, "relative_strength": -9.64202, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.963766, "energy": 82.320867, "activity_lines": [ 562.640002, 550.9121, 527.132161, 524.47155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 554.400024, "volume": 453, "typical_volume": 293.45, "trend": 524.465619, "fair_value": 640.842653, "relative_strength": -10.322347, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.985529, "energy": 51.657529, "activity_lines": [ 558.626676, 554.107441, 530.853103, 526.417132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 560.859985, "volume": 565, "typical_volume": 294.05, "trend": 525.789166, "fair_value": 640.77563, "relative_strength": -5.325854, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.570128, "energy": 44.743587, "activity_lines": [ 557.28667, 557.331094, 535.01309, 528.765155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }