{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c3c1b4c7-5cbd-4db3-b118-dc4706e6a509",
    "symbol": "JPE3",
    "name": "WisdomTree Short JPY Long EUR 3x Daily",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 7.145,
    "architecture_energy": 7.404,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.755,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.719,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.86,
        "rotation_up": 29.92,
        "upward_expansion": 60.32,
        "deceleration": 77.94,
        "rotation_down": 26.41,
        "downward_expansion": 19.32
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        95.038665,
        95.275818,
        95.178619,
        94.627333
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 91.379997,
    "trend_reference": 93.903,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.026868,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 70.501143,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296149,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.320902,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.03322,
    "excess_performance": -0.204112,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026868,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02161,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.296149,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.107318,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123209,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1109,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03322,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.81877,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 251,
      "relative_activity": 1.829446,
      "balance": 0.81877,
      "dry_up": 1.437682,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019504,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.206255,
      "from_high_reference": -0.076223,
      "from_low_reference": 0.227236
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 93.903,
      "fair_value_reference": 70.501143,
      "structural_low": 88.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.027578,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001979,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.085459,
        "worst_return": -0.027381,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.124762,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052048,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.20447,
        "worst_return": 0.014796,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.19657,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.101923,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.465491,
        "worst_return": 0.017851,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.266621,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.212324,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.675585,
        "worst_return": 0.081055,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.080221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.18198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.013743,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.107427,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0602,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.051395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009648,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.081245,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.003014,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.412974,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029786,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.007932,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 48.685001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 537.9,
        "trend": 42.008334,
        "fair_value": 34.351506,
        "relative_strength": 12.611397,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.881077,
        "energy": 65.531601,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
        "close": 50.259998,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
        "close": 51.169998,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 459.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 51.34,
        "volume": 45,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-13",
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        "date": "2023-12-08",
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        "date": "2023-12-15",
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        "date": "2023-12-22",
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        "date": "2024-01-05",
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        "date": "2024-01-12",
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        "date": "2024-01-19",
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        "date": "2024-01-26",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 93.25,
        "volume": 137,
        "typical_volume": 488.9,
        "trend": 90.661778,
        "fair_value": 66.442585,
        "relative_strength": -1.230853,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.517517,
        "energy": 50.300884,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.627333,
          94.093091,
          93.211571,
          92.474616
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 94.489998,
        "volume": 555,
        "typical_volume": 504.75,
        "trend": 91.149778,
        "fair_value": 66.777521,
        "relative_strength": 0.066807,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.322821,
        "energy": 33.937923,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.469999,
          94.309454,
          93.36519,
          92.721598
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 93.93,
        "volume": 237,
        "typical_volume": 493.15,
        "trend": 91.511,
        "fair_value": 67.104444,
        "relative_strength": -1.634163,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.32662,
        "energy": 20.666486,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.026666,
          94.356181,
          93.458333,
          92.900967
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 96.150002,
        "volume": 10,
        "typical_volume": 475.45,
        "trend": 91.916666,
        "fair_value": 67.451239,
        "relative_strength": -0.672192,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.705221,
        "energy": 31.599954,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.617334,
          94.748,
          93.757809,
          93.200258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 95.660004,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 411.9,
        "trend": 92.378333,
        "fair_value": 67.78922,
        "relative_strength": -1.192804,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.518228,
        "energy": 43.305056,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.128002,
          94.946183,
          93.994619,
          93.441764
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 95.790001,
        "volume": 5,
        "typical_volume": 321.9,
        "trend": 92.700333,
        "fair_value": 68.106816,
        "relative_strength": -4.275989,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.794108,
        "energy": 53.027427,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.492668,
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          94.226048,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 94.940002,
        "volume": 39,
        "typical_volume": 163.3,
        "trend": 92.965333,
        "fair_value": 68.401976,
        "relative_strength": -7.566181,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.520073,
        "energy": 50.829434,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.404669,
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          93.806366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 93.620003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 161.0,
        "trend": 93.132,
        "fair_value": 68.687906,
        "relative_strength": -6.050594,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.417832,
        "energy": 27.592632,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.846669,
          94.798183,
          94.384382,
          93.848603
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 96.059998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 147.05,
        "trend": 93.422,
        "fair_value": 68.99297,
        "relative_strength": -6.417811,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.661712,
        "energy": 31.577239,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.122668,
          95.026365,
          94.630191,
          94.037506
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 96.099998,
        "volume": 51,
        "typical_volume": 137.75,
        "trend": 93.593333,
        "fair_value": 69.300021,
        "relative_strength": -5.960962,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.786931,
        "energy": 30.635069,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.418,
          95.286182,
          94.841429,
          94.21028
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 95.190002,
        "volume": 400,
        "typical_volume": 143.5,
        "trend": 93.649,
        "fair_value": 69.59688,
        "relative_strength": -5.504306,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.991808,
        "energy": 29.080799,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.380667,
          95.32091,
          94.938429,
          94.313291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 97.32,
        "volume": 132,
        "typical_volume": 139.35,
        "trend": 93.793334,
        "fair_value": 69.914156,
        "relative_strength": -3.230563,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.841637,
        "energy": 62.426638,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.093333,
          95.707637,
          95.231143,
          94.550129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 97.559998,
        "volume": 6,
        "typical_volume": 135.45,
        "trend": 93.95,
        "fair_value": 70.227457,
        "relative_strength": -3.704685,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.365292,
        "energy": 82.729149,
        "activity_lines": [
          96.727333,
          96.086546,
          95.515476,
          94.79314
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 91.379997,
        "volume": 251,
        "typical_volume": 137.2,
        "trend": 93.903,
        "fair_value": 70.501143,
        "relative_strength": -12.320902,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.145167,
        "energy": 7.404254,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.038665,
          95.275818,
          95.178619,
          94.627333
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}