{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3c6aa62-774d-44a0-86c9-2fdedf0efa24", "symbol": "9524", "name": "Advance International Company for Communication and Information Technology", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.746, "architecture_energy": 84.533, "architecture_maturity": 79.473, "architecture_confidence": 92.44, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.45, "rotation_up": 11.51, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 70.74, "downward_expansion": 92.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.249333, 1.301273, 1.356476, 1.427161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 1.541, "distance_from_trend": -0.143413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.291378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.476547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.301504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015509, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06698, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106808, "relative_activity": 1.705953, "balance": 0.507528, "dry_up": 1.398844, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058275, "annualized_volatility": 0.601619, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 0.211009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.541, "fair_value_reference": 3.291378, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030778, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.147541, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.165485, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.313783, "worst_return": -0.258537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.23, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217019, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.008798, "worst_return": -0.341991, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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59067.1, "trend": 1.65, "fair_value": 3.351923, "relative_strength": -27.938835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.007353, "energy": 45.976248, "activity_lines": [ 1.394667, 1.394364, 1.444619, 1.519978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.37, "volume": 4920, "typical_volume": 52805.4, "trend": 1.625667, "fair_value": 3.338429, "relative_strength": -28.068804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.784271, "energy": 67.798346, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.389455, 1.432667, 1.501914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.2, "volume": 190460, "typical_volume": 59780.8, "trend": 1.592333, "fair_value": 3.32391, "relative_strength": -36.56474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.493967, "energy": 85.798448, "activity_lines": [ 1.325333, 1.355091, 1.405048, 1.474452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 48133, "typical_volume": 59304.5, "trend": 1.560667, "fair_value": 3.306923, "relative_strength": -39.786808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.741053, "energy": 96.788138, "activity_lines": [ 1.240667, 1.305455, 1.368857, 1.442688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 106808, "typical_volume": 62609.0, "trend": 1.541, "fair_value": 3.291378, "relative_strength": -28.476547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.745929, "energy": 84.533172, "activity_lines": [ 1.249333, 1.301273, 1.356476, 1.427161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }