{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d0e8c7-2162-48af-a2c7-0c5923e6e706", "symbol": "RFL", "name": "Rafael Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.395, "architecture_energy": 24.168, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 23.16, "upward_expansion": 55.8, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 31.55, "downward_expansion": 19.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.062, 2.262545, 2.023238, 1.831634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.05, "trend_reference": 1.607, "distance_from_trend": 0.275669, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.670973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22683, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.986596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.680328, "excess_performance": 0.554703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.275669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22683, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.461571, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.229866, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.435861, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.680328, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.954862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 435429, "relative_activity": 0.598975, "balance": 2.954862, "dry_up": 0.741244, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.256435, "annualized_volatility": 0.879259, "from_high_reference": -0.482323, "from_low_reference": 0.830357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.607, "fair_value_reference": 1.670973, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043675, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056701, "worst_return": -0.287964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.197309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.26016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136612, "worst_return": -0.862076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.224215, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.382395, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.207639, "worst_return": -0.924475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.324, 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"2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.240964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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"2026-08-07", "close": 2.05, "volume": 435429, "typical_volume": 726957.1, "trend": 1.607, "fair_value": 1.670973, "relative_strength": 22.986596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.395191, "energy": 24.167541, "activity_lines": [ 2.062, 2.262545, 2.023238, 1.831634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }