{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d0f71b-641c-43dc-af0f-47a361aaf68c", "symbol": "BBD", "name": "Banco Bradesco SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.045, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.971, "architecture_energy": 19.724, "architecture_maturity": 21.458, "architecture_confidence": 69.858, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.11, "rotation_up": 34.32, "upward_expansion": 24.07, "deceleration": 35.27, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 53.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.518785, 3.491212, 3.521328, 3.572638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.37, "trend_reference": 3.646438, "distance_from_trend": -0.07581, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.656314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.70937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137453, "excess_performance": -0.263078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07581, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127094, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152632159, "relative_activity": 0.993122, "balance": 0.945375, "dry_up": 0.981138, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063678, "annualized_volatility": 0.358753, "from_high_reference": -0.214633, "from_low_reference": 0.263171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.646438, "fair_value_reference": 2.656314, "structural_low": 3.213123, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023583, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.054384, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.165946, "worst_return": -0.205381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.201512, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.176602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.510026, "worst_return": -0.215005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044958, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.050361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.665286, "worst_return": -0.125107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.690433, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.541983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.288583, "worst_return": 0.092284, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.711167, "energy": 18.396596, "activity_lines": [ 3.497618, 3.451388, 3.537335, 3.594169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.596174, "volume": 153633779, "typical_volume": 163389535.0, "trend": 3.636105, "fair_value": 2.642994, "relative_strength": -2.306846, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.534801, "energy": 20.676558, "activity_lines": [ 3.547051, 3.480192, 3.539018, 3.592413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.606164, "volume": 126309875, "typical_volume": 155340809.7, "trend": 3.646568, "fair_value": 2.650335, "relative_strength": -3.299219, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.923733, "energy": 20.564183, "activity_lines": [ 3.579502, 3.508445, 3.541747, 3.590481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.37, "volume": 152632159, "typical_volume": 153689300.4, "trend": 3.646438, "fair_value": 2.656314, "relative_strength": -12.70937, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.970839, "energy": 19.724282, "activity_lines": [ 3.518785, 3.491212, 3.521328, 3.572638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }