{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d1db8c-3af2-4809-b082-3011ecea5b13", "symbol": "002117", "name": "Tungkong Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.91, "architecture_energy": 58.357, "architecture_maturity": 84.147, "architecture_confidence": 95.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 24.19, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 60.32, "rotation_down": 57.3, "downward_expansion": 83.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.910667, 8.025273, 8.592872, 9.063451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 9.760052, "distance_from_trend": -0.170086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.448138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.142688, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.219344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281227, "excess_performance": -0.288627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.142688, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.122437, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35828561, "relative_activity": 1.055828, "balance": 0.122437, "dry_up": 1.123494, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077805, "annualized_volatility": 0.305409, "from_high_reference": -0.422992, "from_low_reference": 0.094595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.760052, "fair_value_reference": 9.448138, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.013767, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.005852, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.238994, "worst_return": -0.239234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03891, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.008918, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.646954, "worst_return": -0.168451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159355, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.195412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.435806, "worst_return": -0.033776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.312243, "energy": 81.765827, "activity_lines": [ 7.76, 8.144364, 8.799811, 9.310489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.11, "volume": 33852899, "typical_volume": 33664537.2, "trend": 9.937258, "fair_value": 9.456817, "relative_strength": -24.107555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.59071, "energy": 64.092661, "activity_lines": [ 7.846667, 8.071273, 8.690638, 9.181984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 35828561, "typical_volume": 33934089.2, "trend": 9.760052, "fair_value": 9.448138, "relative_strength": -27.219344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.9095, "energy": 58.356757, "activity_lines": [ 7.910667, 8.025273, 8.592872, 9.063451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }