{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d38c9a-c76a-4a7d-bbe3-5f765489653f", "symbol": "00710B", "name": "Fuh Hwa 1-5 Yr High Yield ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.242, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.779, "architecture_energy": 90.057, "architecture_maturity": 11.972, "architecture_confidence": 64.43, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.82, "rotation_up": 84.91, "upward_expansion": 99.94, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.24, "downward_expansion": 21.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.248, 19.128936, 18.933445, 18.872793 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 19.280001, "trend_reference": 18.816102, "distance_from_trend": 0.024654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.634333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093322, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.238321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030448, "excess_performance": -0.348864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010417, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093322, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08241, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030448, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.542956, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1185071, "relative_activity": 1.215213, "balance": 3.542956, "dry_up": 1.471192, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007586, "annualized_volatility": 0.044888, "from_high_reference": -0.006186, "from_low_reference": 0.114178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.816102, "fair_value_reference": 17.634333, "structural_low": 18.454399, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.00443, "positive_rate": 0.644444, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": 0.000321, "regime_survival": 0.844444, "best_return": 0.025112, "worst_return": -0.056886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017602, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.070964, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.051734, "worst_return": -0.077562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034265, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.067423, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.079407, "worst_return": -0.040706, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 17.586189, "relative_strength": -25.01888, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.974829, "energy": 91.812003, "activity_lines": [ 19.15, 18.992592, 18.843334, 18.80963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.27, "volume": 1517072, "typical_volume": 964041.2, "trend": 18.7958, "fair_value": 17.610583, "relative_strength": -23.127829, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.284645, "energy": 91.965136, "activity_lines": [ 19.210666, 19.066464, 18.889011, 18.841554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 1185071, "typical_volume": 975196.15, "trend": 18.816102, "fair_value": 17.634333, "relative_strength": -24.238321, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.779243, "energy": 90.056724, "activity_lines": [ 19.248, 19.128936, 18.933445, 18.872793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }