{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d8b06e-186d-45d3-96f9-850c32a50a3f", "symbol": "002103", "name": "Guangbo Group Stock Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.928, "architecture_energy": 41.646, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.67, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 19.93, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 36.42, "downward_expansion": 67.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.374, 6.254182, 6.656381, 7.162452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.64, "trend_reference": 7.893667, "distance_from_trend": -0.158819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.977821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.774115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.31334, "excess_performance": -0.32074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122731, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167692, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044409, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75165711, "relative_activity": 2.581116, "balance": 0.799082, "dry_up": 1.726695, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079124, "annualized_volatility": 0.309381, "from_high_reference": -0.413428, "from_low_reference": 0.169014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.893667, "fair_value_reference": 7.977821, "structural_low": 5.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.00202, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.031196, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.396262, "worst_return": -0.180307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09656, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.023689, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.568224, "worst_return": -0.266904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102885, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.034948, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.174208, "worst_return": -0.23205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.636162, "energy": 81.912777, "activity_lines": [ 6.042, 6.378364, 7.07019, 7.629419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.18, "volume": 44528545, "typical_volume": 27598431.6, "trend": 8.203667, "fair_value": 7.972564, "relative_strength": -31.81035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.5353, "energy": 66.781346, "activity_lines": [ 6.069333, 6.270727, 6.930238, 7.49243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.91, "volume": 38581866, "typical_volume": 26678644.65, "trend": 8.064667, "fair_value": 7.973462, "relative_strength": -34.090431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.463176, "energy": 66.7019, "activity_lines": [ 6.022, 6.152364, 6.781, 7.344452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.58, "volume": 42859058, "typical_volume": 26991815.95, "trend": 7.976333, "fair_value": 7.975769, "relative_strength": -24.569299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.671141, "energy": 54.335868, "activity_lines": [ 6.216, 6.190545, 6.710429, 7.248667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.64, "volume": 75165711, "typical_volume": 29121405.35, "trend": 7.893667, "fair_value": 7.977821, "relative_strength": -26.774115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.928113, "energy": 41.645604, "activity_lines": [ 6.374, 6.254182, 6.656381, 7.162452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }