{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3d8ed80-e018-4d71-9ad2-d7c2356690f8", "symbol": "BEN", "name": "B\u00e9n\u00e9teau S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.265, "architecture_energy": 62.579, "architecture_maturity": 33.74, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 19.61, "upward_expansion": 12.29, "deceleration": 43.65, "rotation_down": 63.88, "downward_expansion": 87.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.107333, 6.196859, 6.410399, 6.591753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.15, "trend_reference": 6.929105, "distance_from_trend": -0.11244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.038476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.542827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.225928, "excess_performance": -0.27924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.225928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 277506, "relative_activity": 0.972132, "balance": 0.424909, "dry_up": 1.274485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049241, "annualized_volatility": 0.279105, "from_high_reference": -0.318937, "from_low_reference": 0.060345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.929105, "fair_value_reference": 9.038476, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.037385, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.165088, "worst_return": -0.180851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.049123, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026244, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.279597, "worst_return": -0.153167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054625, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.079884, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.10846, "worst_return": -0.183157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 6.244, 6.377271, 6.563277, 6.782569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.11, "volume": 275457, "typical_volume": 292235.65, "trend": 7.082439, "fair_value": 9.131361, "relative_strength": -22.171532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.716249, "energy": 75.252038, "activity_lines": [ 6.172, 6.305216, 6.510048, 6.715563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.02, "volume": 593953, "typical_volume": 301560.05, "trend": 7.006605, "fair_value": 9.082265, "relative_strength": -24.006005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.743034, "energy": 72.693971, "activity_lines": [ 6.099333, 6.232436, 6.452461, 6.647018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.15, "volume": 277506, "typical_volume": 285461.35, "trend": 6.929105, "fair_value": 9.038476, "relative_strength": -23.542827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.265381, "energy": 62.579281, "activity_lines": [ 6.107333, 6.196859, 6.410399, 6.591753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }